Chapter 4 - Policy Forecasting And Formulation,…
Process of drafting courses of action (policy options) to address what has been placed on the policy agenda.
Method that relies on the opinions and judgments of human being to predict what is going to happen in future. Decision was make based on the experts judgement such as knowledge, personal experience and intuition of the panel.
Advantages: Gives accurate and unbiased result
Disadvantages: Subjective in terms of what judgement to follow
Methods & Techniques:
1. Consensus:•A group decision-making process.
•Compilation of experts or knowledgeable people opinion.
Forming a consensus from those opinions.
•Generate a proposal collectively.
•Identify unsatisfied concerns.
•Modify proposal to gain a final majority agreement.
(i) Face-to-face Meeting Technique
Interactive, through discussion and debate on the selected issue.
Consensus agreement @ teamwork decision.
•Enable two-way communication, no barrier between the panel and agencies that serve them.
•No faceless agency, uncaring bureaucracy and individuals involve are real people.
•Enable agencies to respond or inquire directly at the given time.
•Able to monitor community reactions to agency policy, proposals and progress.
•A formal input to decision making.
•Prone to inaccurate decision due to personal considerations or interest, end up as bias experts' views.
•Assuming many expert opinion matters most than only one expert forecast.
(ii) Delphi Technique
Panel of experts brainstorming. More cautiously selected experts in a systematic and interactive manner.
Aim to overcome any problems occur during face-to-face meeting.
•Anonymity of participants.
•Statistical response (Questionnaires summary) *optional
Procedures & Processes:
•Selection of panel according to expertise and separated to avoid misunderstandings or disagreement problem.
•Members answered separately an open-ended questionnaires to solicit specific information on the subject.
•Members to share their assessment and explain the problem or future predictions.
•The facilitator (panel director) control the discussion by processing and filtering information.
•Panel director will compile, summarize and send feedback to every member.
•Final affirmation of decision from members upon the new information.
•Repeat above processes until final decision gain majority satisfaction = consensus.
Advantages & Disadvantages:
•Success depends on members expertise & communication skills.
•Require longer time for reflection and analysis.
•Major merits: elimination of interpersonal problems, efficient use of experts' time, diversity of ideals, accuracy of solutions and predictions.
2. Genius Forecasting
Intuition or 'gut' based for decision making.
No specified process used by geniuses and not need to be the same process among geniuses.
Geniuses = expert panels with considerable experience make decision according to their insight and luck.
Theodore J.Gordon argument: Geniuses integrate the obvious & implicit. No explanation for the decision making processes, only the genius knows.
Basic assumptions of processes: (intuitive approach)
•Genius brain processes knowledge more rapidly than others, thus they make correct judgement about future.
•Some guess correctly more often than others.
Advantages and disadvantages:
Not all geniuses can predict the future correctly, only those with their past predictions proven and expertise.
Those with lower IQ than the genius can also make correct prediction, but only those with proven great insight.
•Genius is limited to a particular field of knowledge.
•Took less time and less cost.
•Hard to find geniuses or those who can make great prediction.
•Geniuses may have contradict forecast.
This method is refer to hard data or statistics and statistical modal to predict and project future direction. We can find the hard data either in online or in book.
2.Exponential smoothing method- using statistical model :New Forecast = α (most recent observation) + (1 - α) (last
- Time Series Method-
It using of past value data of variable to predict future or make some decision in the future
Eg: no of year, no of month
Advantages & Disadvantages of Quantitative method for forecasting:
Ad - Based on the statistic we can come up with the prediction of future.
Dis - A lot of data or information is costly because a lot of printing.
2.Person who doing the forecasting:
Ad - need a person who are good in statistical or mathematics
Dis - difficult to find that kind of person and very costly to pay for their expertise.
Courses of action:
In this stage, when the cost of action is able to resolve the problem and is cost effective, the policy maker or political actor will decide on what and which policy recommendation that will be taken, what are the causes of action proposed that will be accepted or authorized.
Questions to address:
The administrators need to know to what extend the chosen course of action will able to get political support, administrative support and also the public support.
Eg: if the MCO is still ongoing government already have a plan what must their do to solve problem that maybe happen in future. That mean we can plan ahead before something happen.
- To plan for the best possible course of action among the various alternatives which the future may offer.
Eg: We need to shape the future based on the pass and present situation. It is important to know the historical act to move forward.
- To use the past and present situation to determine the future states of a problem.
It is a process of predicting future direction or action towards a problem. Member of the policy whereby the government decided to continue or to implement the policy agenda.
Eg: During the fist MCO, follow by second MCO and so on, we noticed that government try to modify the policy based on the need and current situation of certain areas.
Once forecasting is done, administrator will starts formulating / drafting the relevant policy options / courses of action to resolve problem.