Decision making

Herbert Simon developed a model that shows humans processing through three essential stages in the act of problem solving which he called the Intelligence, Design and Choice stages

During the intelligence stage, relevant information pertinent to the problem and its environment is gathered

During the design stage, the criteria on which the problem is to be solved is determined

These criteria are used to select from the various available options in the choice stage

Rational vs intuitive decision making

Classic decision theory ( A rational theory which assumes that decision makers are objective, have complete information and consider all possible alternatives and their consequences before selecting the optimal solution)

The rational decision making model (A model which assumes that decision making is and should be a rational process consisting of a sequence of steps that enhance the probability of attaining a desired outcome)

The rational decision making model proposes that there is one best outcome, is a series of logical, sequential steps: first define the problem, determine the criteria that will be used to make the decision; allocate a weighting to each of the criteria (as some will be more important than others); develop alternatives; evaluate alternatives and then select the best fit

The problem with the rational decision making model is that it assumes the decision maker is unbiased and has all the information required to make a decision, very often people are content to identify any solution rather than the best solution that the model implies

Decision making process and bounded rationality

Managers cannot always obtain all the information required to define a particular problem and the cost to obtain such information may be prohibitive

There may not always be time or sources to identify all of the possible solutions for a given problem

While managers strive to make quality decisions, this may not always be possible

Decisions are often made with incomplete and sometimes inaccurate information, rendering any subsequent decision one of reduced qualitify

When it is a person making the decision, their mental process may be flawed or they may lack the mental capacity to process information appropriately - again leading to poor quality decisions

Consequently many decisions are bounded by the limits of the information available and the mental capacities of the decision maker, this concept is known as bounded rationality which refers to individuals making decisions by constructing simplified models which extract the essential features from problems and without capturing all their complexity

Complex problems that involve multiple criteria and large amounts of information are challenging for the human brain to deal with rationally

Instead we reduce the problem down to the level at which we can understand it, that is we put a boundary around the problem, limiting the scope of the decision making process - we cut out some crtieria and even some information

We create a simplified model without all the complexity on which we can apply a rational process - the decisions we take are not the optimal ones but satisfactory ones

Rational decision making is not the only way to make a decisions

Managers will often make decisions based on their experiences, gut feelings, politics, personal choices and emotions

They may make judgements using values and heuristics, that is simple and approximate rules or guiding procedures - such decision making is often referred to as subjective (Based on or influenced by personal feelings, tastes or opinions, taking place within the mind and modified by individual bias and defined by personal preference) or intuitive (Based on instinct or what is felt to be true without conscious reasoning)

Some studies suggest that rational decision making is more common amongst operational managers while intutive, emotional or subjective decision making is typically employed by more senior managers