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Week 7 The Multiplicity of Syria: Civil War and the War on Terror -…
Week 7
The Multiplicity of Syria: Civil War and the War on Terror
The Syrian Conflict
Quick Overview
Uprising: 15th March 2011-28th July 2011
Civil War: 29th July 2011
Proxy War: 29th July 2011
Themes
internal instability (economic down turn, dictatorial rule)
Arab Spring
External influence
Displacement of Refugees
ISIS
'Syria' under the Ottomans
3 distinct areas: Vilayet of Aleppo, Vilayet of Dayr az-Zor, Vilayet of Syria or Damascus
Syria under French Mandate
1922
State of Aleppo and state of Damascus, Alawite State, greater Lebanon
shift in boundaries since Ottoman rule
now under different provinances
Modern Syria
Turkey to north , Iraq to east, Jordan south and Lebanon and Israel west
Uprisings began in Southwest of Syria
Syria Pre-Uprising 1
long reign of Hafez al-Assad
1970-2000 as leader of Ba-ath Party
a cult of personality
Instated faily and Alawis sect into positions of power
favoured the jews and christians
eradicating Muslim brotherhood in crackdown in 1982 when they attempted to seize power
killed 10,000 people
rule of fear
Syria under Hafez al-Assad: domestically he was this cult personality that ensured his rule for 30 years, regionally he established Syria as a key player in the Arab-Israeli conflict, ensuring support from the Gulf states for it's role in the conflict, internationally took advantage of cold war politics and utilised the protection of the Soviet Union
Syria Pre-Uprising 2
Bashar al-Assad
less of a cult personality than his father
regionally and internationally seen as malleable through pressure
in order to gain initial support, he released hundreds of political prisoners, promised economic reform, to fight corruption, allow independent newspapers to be published and promised a Syrian democratic experience
this reformism was short lived
positioning Syria as the opposition to Israel and US
with the American war in Iraq, Bashar had allowed the flow of weapons into Iraq arming the Sunni insurgency again pushing the anti-American sentiment and further destabilising Iraq
the international level: positioned himself as the centre of Arab resistance against Israel and US
The war on terror garnered Syria much regional support and led to Obama to explore points of cooperation over the Iraq
Syria Pre-Uprising 3
Domestic Status of Syria:
traditionally diverse and fractured population
political repression
political abuse
Environmental and Economic issues
climate refugees from countryside to cities, due to severe drought 2007-2010
mass internal migration to cities
oil revenue only from 21% of oil produced due to internal consumption or is smuggled
increase in population and a lack of resources to support that population
The Syrian Uprising
The Spark:
March 2011 protests begin after a group of 5 14 year old boys were arrested and tortured for producing pro-Arab uprising graffiti
Hamza al-Khateeb aged 13 died
family and friends began protesting their arrest in Dara'a
protests spread against the police and the regime - the military cracks down on protesters in Damascus, Banias and Deraa, cradle of the uprising where 100 people died on the 23rd March 2011
Assad's Response
As protests intensified, Assad had a mixed response:
Initial response: conciliatory unlike Tunisia or Egypt/ 'coup proofing':
revision of the constitution
release of political prisoners
end of 50 year state of emergency
new parliamentary elections in May 2011
However:
brutal but controlled exercise of state violence by the Shabiha (secret agencies)
infiltration of public spaces by gov and military; regime avoids Tunisian and Egyptian restraint
protests shifted from small and scattered to intense
March 2011 emboldened by GCC troops entered Bahrain and NATOS's Libya bombing - with regime violence against protests escalating across Syria
Escalation
demonstrations and street protests mounting met with violent regime's responses
snowball effect on protests (Strong influence of Libyan dynamics)
important role of social media in spreading images/mobilising masses
end of July 2011, Assad launched a military operation, killing thousands of protesters
US under strong pressure to stand against Assad
August 2011: Obama's statement saying that 'for the sake of the Syrian people, the time has come for President Assad to step aside' - international influence on the internal and domestic affairs of the Syrian state
Concluding Thoughts
we have seen the internal dynamics in Syria
Internationally has positioned itself anti-Israel and anti-American
different ways in which Syria has played a role within the Middle East and on an international scale
Civil War
Descent into Civil War 1
between 11th March 2011- 28th July 2011: protests in cities surrounding Dar'a:
increasing use of violence
15th March 'day of rage' in Damascus and Aleppo
protests now shifting across the country
simultaneous protests in al-Hsakhah, Deir ez-Zor and Hama
continuing violence from both protestors and government forces
shift in dynamics towards a civil war
Descent into Civil War 2
different organisation groups arising:
the local coordination councils: the heart of the uprising, key points of contract to get detailed information about developments on the ground. They were a number of different groups: street activists, people in the media, connected the grass root revolutionaries - key way to get information - key communications network
The Free Syrian Army: aimed at coordinating local armed groups, idea to attract defectors from Syrian army - 29th July. Transition form uprising, protests and revolution to civil war because now there is a unit of armed individuals that were part of the Syrian army now working for the opposition - military working against the Assad regime
The Syrian National Council: vehicle to receive international support and recognition (based in Turkey) - was a way to gain military and economic support and for the international community to recognise them
National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Oppositional Forces (funded and supported by Qatar)
However
fragmentation across and within Syrian resistance groups occured
not just because of personality clashes but international backers
The Actors
Pro-Assad:
Syrian government
Iran backed Hezbollah
Iran
Iraq
Russia
Anti-Assad
free Syrian army (FSA)
Turkey
Qatar
Saudi arabia
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) dominated by the Kurdish people's protection Units (YPG)
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham
ISIL (Jama'at al Tawih wal-Jihad)
USA
The Multiplicity (Duality) of Syria
2013, the crisis in Syria is presented as 2 wars that were being fought: the Civil War (domestic) and the war on terror (international)
The Civil War
dynamics between pro and anti Assad and the dynamics between the 2 - both fighting for Syria itself
The War on Terror
influence into the Syrian conflict
simultaneous war in Syria
conflict was gaining Western influence into the Syrian conflict - threat to the West
UK sends troops to Syria as they are perceived a terrorist threat (minimising the threat from Al-Quaeda and later ISIS)
YET conflict continues and the multiplicity of Syria becomes true to force: sectarian division, Turkey vs YPG (2017 onwards Turkish present in Syria), Israel, Golan Heights and security, regional implications of civil war and international involvement within Syria, regional implications of civil war and international involvement within Syria
External Involvement
A regional turn against Assad:
Saudi Arabia sought to break the alliance between Syria and Iran
Bahrain sought an active regional role following its repression of protesters as the ruling Sunni regime employed anti-Shi'a rhetoric against the Syrian Alawites
Turkey quickly anti-Assad - refugee influex and Kurdish question
Qatar seeking a regional role; first state to cut relations, impose sanctions
the Arab league floated an idea of intervention, opposed by Iraqi PM Nuri al-Maliki
Internationally
Russia a long term ally of Spain and against a Western Libya-style intervention
USA demands Assad step down in August 2011
Descent into Proxy War
Descent into Proxy war
Lynch: 'every escalation in favour of one side triggers a response form the backers of the other - never enough to win, always enough to keep going'
Iran supporting Assad
US and allies bombing ISIS targets, supporting insurgents (including Kurds)
following US airstrikes, Russia introduces troops and air power
A balance of power in favour of negotiation is impossible:
neither side is able to crush the other
-each time one side's relative power increased, so did its objectives
when Assad was strong, no need to compromise; when weak, too threatened
when rebels were strong, overthrow Assad; when weak, did not dare give up
Syrian Babel
Dynamics of moralities at play
looks at the moral justifications of the terrorist organisations themselves and looks at the morality behind them
Syria: Who controls what?
2017: May ISIS in Syria vs NOV gov are able to regain territory
2018: shifting of power and dynamics, different locations of rebel forces to gov forces, withdrawal of ISIS at this point
The Field of Battle
March 2019: the amount of which the Assad regime has been able to reclaim with support from Russia, China and Iran
2020: Feb - gov forces mostly in control
The lack of R2P in Syria
lack of intervention in Syria
following from 'success' of Libya - what made Syria so different?
Since the war in Syria began 2011:
560,000 people killed in the conflict between gov and opposition groups
6.7 million Syrian refugees
13 million people are internally displaced - largest number of people displaced by any conflict in the world
12 million Syrian remain in dire need of humanitarian assistance
Since 2013, the UN Security Council has passed 24 resolutions on humanitarian peace talks and chemical weapons in Syria
Several of these refer to the government's responsibility to protect populations, but non have been fully implemented
Concluding Thoughts
the internal dynamics and instability existing within Syria
the authoritarian rule in which dictated the state
the differing instabilities due to economic situations and implications of environmental refugees due to drought and agricultural problems
the desire for maintaining state overarching control
what starts of as a domestic issue (e.g. the uprising) and desire for reform and change leads to regional implications for the Syrian war
the Syrian conflict impacts the regional dynamics of the Middle East
regional actors becoming involved within the conflict in order to direct how it will turn - self interest, security etc
international dynamic: involvement from states in the international community
Actions in Syria impacts international politics - Russia against the USA again
war on terror
with unstable states such as Syria and the presence of ISIS, brings the international community involved
this must all be taken into consideration when evaluating the Syrian conflict