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Plotting your scenarios, Bibliography - Coggle Diagram

- - - - Should be
        
        People with a thorough knowledge of the
        company and the critical issue or issues to be addressed
        
        As diverse as possible
        
        acquainted with a variety of intellectual disciplines
        
        variety of cultures
        
        Present: finance, R&D, manufacturing, marketing, and
        different executive levels
    - - Begins
        
        Identify, discuss and develop a clear understanding of useful questions to ask about the decision
      - Must ask
        
        Should we build a new coal-fired power plant?
        
        Should we acquire (or divest or expand) certain businesses (or product lines)?
        
        Should we build a
        manufacturing facility in (country)?
        
        Should we invest a substantial fraction of the firm’s resources in a new interactive media venture?
      - Determine
        
        Focal issue
        
        Time frame of the scenario
    - - Consists
        
        Led by a person experienced at facilitating brainstorming
        sessions
        
        Practice that no idea is immediately disparaged or discarded
        
        Identifying driving forces and key
        trends
        
        Consider 5 general categories of forces and trends: social, technological, economic, environmental, and political
    - - Is time to look
        
        At the various forces and related environmental factors more closely:
        
        Which key forces seem inevitable or pre-determined?
        
        Which forces are most likely to define or significantly change the nature or direction of the scenarios?
    - - Is
        
        Consensus about which of these forces are the most critical uncertainties only emerges after extensive discussion
        
        Inductive method
        
        Deductive method
- - - - Emblematic Events
        
        Starts with individual events or plot elements, and spins larger stories around these seeds
        
        A group can build a scenario that will
        have future consequences that call for some strategic decisions in the present
        
        The process is unsystematic
      - The Official Future
        
        Systematic decision makers really believe
        
        Featuring no surprising changes to the current environment and continued stable growth
        
        Identify ket drivers through
        interviews with the scenario team
        
        Discover which ones are most important and influential in the Official Future
        
        Explore how different interactions between key forces might produce unexpected outcomes