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REASONING: The process of drawing conclusions from given information and…
REASONING: The process of drawing conclusions from given information and evidence
How do we reason?
3 theories that explain
:silhouette:
1. Probalistic/Bayesian Theory
: Reasoning based on determining what we believe and to what extent (more probabilistic & subjective ) (Ball & Thompson, 2018)
:check: Allows nuanced answer - True and false replaced by degree of belief = New Paradigm
Old Paradigm =
Logic:
Draw logical interferences to determine what is true and false = :red_cross: Too yes or no
2. Mental models
: We make mental models in our head from perception and imagination, and we use these to reason (John-Laird, 2013)
We adjust our models based on feedback and what we learn from experience
:warning: People usually only consider one model and accept it if it's good enough
formed from hypothetical possibilities (Evans, 2013)
3. Dual Porcess Theory
(Evans & Stanovich, 2019)
We have
2 systems
(Old version) :red_cross: - too dichotomous - impression to have 2 different parts of the mind, yet they interact with each other
Sytem 2: When our reasoning takes more time & you apply more knowledge that you already have (more analytical)
We have
2 processes :
(New version)
Autonomous process, no need of input
Cognitive decoupling; can represent info independant of what the state of the world is ex: imagining
System 1: When our reasoning is quicker & more intuitive
Used more often when can relate to the subject & it is familiar
Heuristics:
Mental shortcuts used to reach a conclusion (Johnson-Laird, 2013) (Heins, 2020)
Representattive heuristic:
When you represent a mental heuristic - tendency to associate something that looks like another thing you know, to it
Availability heurisitcs
Anchoring heuristics
Biases:
When we reach a conclusion as we fail to consider alternatives
Confirmation bias:
When you seek more confirmation than disconfirmation
Base rate neglect
- When you undervalue the probability & use more intuition ex: UMer amongst SBE example. (Pennycook &Thompson, 2016).
belief bias effect
= when you have a tendency to agree with syllogisms that are coherent with your beliefs
Fallacy
- a mistake in reasoning (Gambler's fallacy)
Types
Deductive Reasoning :
The process of reasoning using valid premises to reach logical and valid conclusions. (Stenberg & Sternberg, 2017)
Conditional reasoning
When a conclusion is drawn based on an if-then proposition.
ex: If a student studies hard, then he will get good grades
:warning:deductive validity does not = truth
Tests & measures
:silhouettes:
Wason Selection Task
(Ball & Thompson,2018)
Experiment 1:
There is a letter on each side of each card and a number on the other side. Which card(s) must be turned over to determine whether the following statement (conditional) is true? "If a card has a vowel on each side, then it has an even number on the other side"
Many fail to turn the right ones becuase of a difficulty to distinguish between necessity and sufficiency. The problem here is that people verify instead of falsifying the cards! :warning: = satisficing = we will often only do the things that will satisfy the minimum requirement. (Ahn &Graham, 1999)
If you turn A & 2 - you fail to consider alternatives, when the defalt can be easily justified :warning:
tendency towards confirmation
1 more item...
Principle of truth:Prefer to represent info as true, at the expense of also thinking of it as false
Modulus ponens = affirming the atencedent - must turn over the card showing a consonant (Sternberg & Sternberg, 2017)
Modulus tollens (Sternberg & Sternberg, 2017) - the card with an odd number has to be turned to deny the consequent
Experiment 2 (Modified version):
When context is given = easier to reason and not make errors
Evidence for
You are a police officer and you walk into a bar. There are foru people into the bar. You know what two of them are drinking (One a beer, the other a soda).The other two showed you their ID so you know their age (25 and 17). Which person must you check to determine if this statement (conditional) is false?; "If you drink beer, you must be at least 21 years old"
same experiment but with context
People respond better - the feeling of mistrust will make you put more effort in verification
The Probabilistic Truth table
:silhouettes:
Participants provided with a description of a person and then conditional statements about that person. Participants have to evaluate their likelihoods - ex: if given a description of a woman and then (Ball & Thompson,2018)
Conjunction Fallacy
The Ramsey Test
(Ball & Thompson,2018)
Types/ Ways to
Syllogistism reasoning
: When drawing conclusions from two or more premises
assumed to be true
Inductive Reasoning:
To reason using specific facts or observations to reach a conclusion. Make jumps with conclusions and reach easy generalisations - more hypothetical (Ball & Thompson,2018)
Types /ways to
Casual interferences :
When you make a judgement to know what caused something
Categorical interferences:
When you use both information from sensory experience to place things/people into categories
Reasoning by analogy:
When you draw a conclusion by comparing two things
often results in heuristics when not given enough time
Tests:
The red beads task
- If there are no red beads, this would make the first and second statement correct, whereas there can only be one correct, so of there are red beads, only one statement is correct, thereofre that is the answer! :silhouettes:
Principle of truth:
we fail to represent what is false when thinking about the truth when reasoning (Yang & Johnson-Laird, 1999)
Consciously & unconsciously
Over extension Errors lead to :warning:
