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dual processing model - Coggle Diagram
dual processing model
the two systems
System 1: impressions
fast, automatic, effortless,
associative, implicit, emotionally charged, subconscious
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System 2: judgements
slow, serial, effortful, consciously monitored, deliberately controlled
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Judgement Under Uncertainty (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974)
Aim: To investigate the nature of system 1 and system 2 thinking through heuristics and anchoring biases
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the scenario given
- A certain town is served by two hospitals.
- the larger hospital about 45 babies are born each day
- the smaller hospital about 15 babies are born each day.
- about 50 percent of all babies are boys.
- However, the exact percentage varies from day to day. Sometimes it may be higher than 50 percent, sometimes lower.
- For a period of 1 year, each hospital recorded the days on which more than 60 percent of the babies born were boys.
- Which hospital do you think recorded more such days?
- The larger hospital
- The smaller hospital
- About the same (that is, within 5 percent of each other)
deliberately confusing statistical scenario - need a bit of thought before arriving at the solution.
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The correct answer: the smaller hospital
- because statistically the larger the sample size the closer it will get to the average
- hence, it is more likely that a small hospital will have more disproportionate days.
- 78% of participants were wrong
- 56% chose the option – about the same
- used system 1 thinking (intuition), rather than logically thinking.
utilised a representative heuristic - when people are making decisions/judgements based on probabilities.
- demonstrated the use of system 1 thinking
- showed how unreliable it is
- explain poor decision making whenever one relies on System 1 to come up with a fast, effortless answer (sometimes wrong)
In certain situations such as this, although it may seem that using system 1 or the fast intuitive thinking style maybe be better, often system 2 must be utilised (due to confusing statistical scenarios) as quick judgements can often be wrong