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Is Belt and Road Asia's Destiny? - Coggle Diagram
Is Belt and Road Asia's Destiny?
Views of Belt and Road
India has been clear that this is a hub-and-spokes concept - strategy to integrate the Indo-Pacific one way towards China
Opaque system, promotes Chinese tech and norms - creates separate standards, customs standards etc that would prevent the rest of the world from competing
Strategically placed countries like the Maldives, Seychelles, Djibouti with shaky sovereign credit getting loans - potential shift in global balance of power
China's hypocrisy regarding borders and sovereignty
American view
Obama White House was desperate for Chinese tactical cooperation though many in Washington understood the BRI
US saw its naval dominance as being more important than BRI, a continental plan
Difficult to get solid evidence as to what the Chinese were up to - only became clear in 2017
South East Asia
Not naive - well aware of Chinese coercion
China guarantees benefits to smaller states - contrasts with the competition-based rules of the liberal democracies
Security factor driving their relationship to the US has been replaced by domestic political compulsions which China meets better
Interrogating the actual effects of these projects might organically shift opinion against them
How did it start?
Xi pulled economic readjustment into broader strategic shift - Mao of the next century - BRI integral to this
China's leadership took advantage of the end of the Cold War, rise of the Internet, fall of geographical boundaries
2008 GFC saw the slowdown of China's export led model
What has India done about Chinese influence in our neighbourhood?
What we're doing
There is a move toward maritime power
Move towards consultative/participatory diplomacy, building connectivity and demand-driven projects abroad
Focus on larger neighbourhood
Need to do more with partners
Further engagement, clarification of misconceptions needed
Best not to fall for Global Times' insinuations about India's independence - form of psychological pressure meant to force "independent" stance
Trend of improving relations with US will continue
COVID has surely affected Chinese finances - Chinese approach to BRI might change in future
The Quad seeks to balance, not hedge. These are the right countries to do so
Constraints
In a globalised world, difficult to maintain a concept of "our backyard"
Chinese influence in South Asia not due primarily to BRI
India also has financial and oversight constraints