Deep Webinar 5: Is Belt and Road Asia's Destiny
India's view on BRI
Readjustment of Chinese strategy had become inevitable after Xi came to power
The economic centre of the world is shifting to the indo-pacific and BRI is a tool to approach that
India's concern with BRI is that it is a unilateral initiative
India feels that BRI is a strategy to integrate the indo-pacific into China's economy
BRI can prevent Indian and Global companies from competing with China as a tool of exclusion
BRI can lead to decline of many countries in the region, including the US
China's disregard for sovereignty also a problem for India
American Approach to BRI
The US took a while to process the challenge posed by BRI
Obama White House reluctant to speak openly about concerns about BRI
Obama administration wanted to go for more cooperative outcomes
US more interested in maritime issues and not continental ones
China only been more open about BRI from 2017
Countering China in South Asia
China is an economic giant five times the size of India
India's focus shifting from continental boundaries to maritime boundaries
India lacks China's capacity and economic strengths
India aiming to put an example to countries looking at the Chinese model through
Being demand driven
Being consultative
Being transparent and participative
Coherent with the principles of sovereignty and connectivity
Several maritime projects in the pipeline but our role as a developer is recent
still learning from mistakes and focusing on the larger neighbourhood and not just South Asia
We do not have a proper assessment of what COVID has done to BRI
India needs to do more with its partners to provide a viable alternative
What is China doing about BRI?
Promoting it to countries as a positive sum game
Unapologetic about BRI being China-centric
Providing guarantee of benefits to smaller states
for eg, free and liberal indo-pacific
Pitch to smaller countries: Only by submitting to a Sino-centric world can you achieve progress for yourself
India already had FTAs with multiple countries. India's experience did not go well as expectations were not met.
One of the major countries that India does not have an FTA with is China
In the 2020s, India should focus on improving relationship with China
India not joining RCEP is superficially damaging
China is inadvertently tying India and US closer together
China is worried about countries cooperating against Chinese interest
China has been contemplating a naval expansion for a while
India needs to offer alternatives to BRI in the near future
Key is to look at areas where the quad is prepared to expend resources and effort
This applies specifically to the non-military dimension
for example, the digital silk road
Survival of the communist ideology depends on the system surviving as compared to others
India does not look at BRI or China ideologically
Asia for Asians speech aimed at the Americans
China wants to pre-determine economic outcomes through BRI
As China gets more and more involved in a region, it is going to encounter the same problems that India is and will get sucked into politics
The idea is not to exclude China but to ensure that China cannot exclude others
BRI projects also have potential to be weaponised