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China's Grand Strategy for next three decades - 2050, S&T
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S&T
strategy
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Opinion
“pockets of excellence”;
without changes like effective IP
rights and academic freedoms,
China simply does not have the breadth of talent or the dynamic, intellectually free environment to become world leaders in all these areas
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Future
Near-Term SEI :red_flag: Mid-Term MIC2025 :red_flag: Long-Term CAS2050 :red_flag: (strategic emerging industries)
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Economic Futures
medium-term (to 2030)
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Slower growth of consumotion barring major olicy changes, unlikely to exceed 50%
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IMF - RMB 8.7%, unless USD confidence down
BRI&MIC, High-tech SMEs,IP
Short-Term (next 5 yrs)
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Consuption GDP% likely rise slowly, Exports GDP% CONTINUE TO FALL
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分析框架与方法
- 查阅中西方文献资料，界定大战略范围，从而确定评估框架
- refer to six overall categories of sources
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- 查阅额外资料，评估与官方定义的目标的差异，驱动力，障碍，以及或多或少已成功部分
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- 分析框架，“战略，外交，经济，科技，军事” - 中美竞争区域
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Recovery : 1978–1989
Economic weakness
reform,open,coopertion, low profile - Economic Rank1
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- engineers and scientists --- > social sciences and humanities
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- hard power --- > soft power - China Dream
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- pervasive regime insecurity
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- collective leadership model --> Concentration
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- proactive defense at home and vigorous offense abroad
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- Maintaining Social Stability
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- Probable is higher likelyhood than Possible in English wording
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reactive—responses to looming crises—
rather than proactive reforms intended to lift Chinese economic growth
"moving forward is no longer about catching up with the world in these areas but instead is about learning to lead diplomatically, economically, and technically"
"In each of these areas, China has internal
barriers and constraints to achieving such leadership, and addressing those barriers
and constraints often conflicts with priorities for social stability and political control."
