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THE CHINA CHALLENGE: The Future of the World Order - Coggle Diagram
THE CHINA CHALLENGE:
The Future of the World Order
China's Position
Geopolitics
China likely to grow more nationalistic
Taiwan may be a flashpoint for the US and China
How will China reassure the neighbourhood after an aggressive military action?
Likely to increase antagonism against China in the region
Smaller powers would prefer more room to maneuvre
ASEAN countries would prefer a lighter hand so as not to antagonise China
Will US-China rivalry be replaced with dynamic cooperation?
China favours a world defined by its concept of order, will seek to arbiter politics and maintain interests in small client states in its neighbourhood. Deference will be demanded.
Post-pandemic world order sees a power vacuum, but China not able to fill it currently
US remains world's dominant military power
Will it be able to coerce China without triggering war?
Indian reluctance to play a balancing role might prompt the US, Australia etc. to nudge it towards a more anti-China stance
Geoeconomics
Technology competition will be an important feature
America now willing to crack down on illicit Chinese activity, on IP etc.
China will be less able to exploit globalisation without making concessions, as the narrative of "peaceful rise" no longer sells
Without access to global markets and with increasing labour costs, high growth rates will not be sustainable
BRI connectivity crucial to Chinese goals
But may be a gigantic failure if the infrastructure is not as productive as expected
Debt trap narrative might have traction
The World Order
A Bipolar World Order?
Increased bargaining power for smaller powers?
US has lost a lot of prestige due to the Trump admin, esp. in Asia
China doesn't have overwhelming military power on par with the US, so cannot create a bipolar order by itself
Localisation of politics?
Nationalism can no longer be denied, will need to be integrated into the global order
Fragmentation of world economy?
The old concept of globalisation is likely to fade
"Trusted networks" will emerge
Resilient supply chains
Secure supplies of strategic resources
Ability to rein in COVID will be a big factor in securing access to markets
India
Needs to introspect on China strategy
Very little "give" from China
Difficult global scenario
Many unfinished tasks in terms of making India a leading global power
High preparedness, esp along the LAC, a necessity
How will the US respond?
When the elephants fight, the grass suffers - and the elephants don't care about the grass.
ASEAN will need to take a call on its security ties with the US if China grows more militarily assertive
A rivalry with China will be disadvantageous to India
Chinese presence in South Asia gives options to smaller powers such as Nepal and Sri Lanka
America's advantage will reduce over time, it must act now
Actively searching for potential allies
There can't be a new NATO, owing to concerns from regional actors
Will need to build capacity of its partners
Despite costs to American corporates, it is taking economic measures
Continued economic advantage will be crucial to success
A Trump administration would continue its aggressive rhetoric
A Biden administration would probably talk less and act more.
Containment appears to be the strategy now
Confrontation depends on Chinese action. But China likely to focus on a more subtle Long Game, similar to Pakistan
China deeply integrated into Pakistan's military and strategic planning
110,000 Pakistani students study in China right now
Pakistan will be used like North Korea to lock down regional actors