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uruguay - Coggle Diagram

- - - - strengthes
        
        prudent debt management policies
        
        stable economic growth
        
        robust external liquidity
      - issues
        
        high dollarization
        
        high inflation
        
        low fiscal intermediation
    - - successful containment of pandemic
      - less severe lockdown
      - amp-up in the UPM project
      - outsized weight of telecom activity in GDP data
    - - drag from real wage loos and fiscal austerity
      - drag from risks to exports and tourism
      - smaller contribution from UPM
    - - government expectations
        
        surge in exports and private investments
        
        drag from fiscal austerity
        
        delivering strong job gains
        
        large current account surplus
        
        seek new trade agreements
        
        EU-Mercosul trade
    - - more competitive exchange rate
      - reduction in high utility rates
        
        transparently
      - enhancements in the tax incentives scheme for investments : upside
        
        fiscal constraints : prevent larger impulse
    - - rise to 7.3% of GDP
        
        above the official projection : 6,6%
        
        dividends - BROU
      - five-year budget
        
        spending growth < expected GDP growth
        
        reduce - 2024 : 2,7%
        
        reduce - 2021 : 3,8%
        
        plan
        
        cut in real primary spending : 2021
        
        opex
        
        investment budgets
        
        increases averaging : 2022- 2024
    - - negative rating action/downgrade
        
        public finances : :red_cross:achieve substantial fiscal adjustment + stabilization of debt/GDP
        
        macro : evidence of weak economy recovery and/or post-recovery trend growth
        
        domestic or external challenges
        
        lack of progress on structural reforms to improve competitiveness issues and growth potential
      - positive rating action/upgrade
        
        public finances : confidence in fiscal consolidation consistent with stabilization of debt/GDP
        
        macro
        
        strong recovery in economic growth + improved prospect for private investment and exports
        
        evidence : reduction of inflation and inflation expectations, de-dollarization and financial deepening that improve policy flexibility
    - - 5
        
        Political Stability
        
        Rule of Law
        
        Institutional and
        
        Institutional
        
        Regulatory Quality
        
        Control of Corruption
      - 4
        
        Creditor Rights
        
        Human Rights and Political Freedoms