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THREAT OF TERRORISM (evidence of threat (probability of dying from…
THREAT OF TERRORISM
evidence of threat
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attacks are localized in several countries of few regions (Western Europe, Middle East)
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terrorist behavior is not random, aims at political struggle so targets are symbolic, rural areas not threatened
terrorist groups care about public opinion, mass casualty is not in their interest
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measuring threat
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precautionary principle: take great measures irrespective of the likelihood because the potential consequences are too great
problems with databases
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Global Terrorism Database (GTD) includes 1. intentional 2. violence or threat of 3. non-state actors 4. that have a political/eco/religious goal AND/OR convey message to an audience. excludes state terrorism and failed plots
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MUELLER
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limited likelihood of WMD terrorism because difficult acquisition of materials to make bomb. construction and delivery difficult. terrorists don't need to use WMD, conventional weapons are successful. unlikely to get material from weak states because they won't be able to control the groups
Lone Wolf Terrorism
growing threat:
- 98% of deaths by terrorism in US since 2006 caused by lone wolf terrorism (156) ex: Orlando (50)
- lone actors responsible for 22% deaths in OECD countries in 2015
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