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Cognitive errors & biases in social judgement (SOCIAL INFERENCE…

- - - - Tendency to seek out info that supports our beliefs; while ignoring disconfirming info
      - Wason (1960) "Discover the rule applying to 3 number sequences
        
        Told: 2-4-6 fits the rule
        
        Actual rule: any ascending sequence
        
        S seemed to test only positive examples; sequences that obeyed their hypothesised rule
        
        80% convinced themselves of the wrong rule
    - - Once 'belief' + 'rationale' is formed = difficult to demolish
  - - - Can be reduced by rational & scientific thinking
      - Implications for the genesis & persistence of superstition
- - - - Unconscious
      - Automatic
      - Fast
      - Everyday
      - Error-prone
      - Examples
        
        Read text on sign
        
        Drive car on empty road
        
        Solve 2+2
        
        Understand simple sentences
        
        Disgust at gory image
        
        Complete; "war and ___"
    - - Effortful
      - Complex
      - Conscious
      - Reliable
      - Slow
      - Examples
        
        Park in a tight space
        
        Dig into a memory to recognise sound
        
        Solve 14 x 17
        
        Determine validity of complex logical reasoning
        
        Determine appropriateness of behaviour in a social setting
        
        Count number of 'a's in a text
  - - - Mentally stimulating "what might have been"
      - Near misses/wins are more cognitively available; influence our experience of regret, frustration, relief
      - Eg. Bronze vs silver, missing plane by 5 or 20 mins
    - - Biased towards an irrelevant starting value/anchor in making quantitative judgements
      - Chance of war greater than 1%? (25%) Chance of war less than 90%? (45%)-
      - DV = estimate chance of war; provides an anchor
    - - Judge frequency of an event: how easy it is to think of examples
      - Eg. Plane crash likelihood, More words starting with 'r' (rate) or have 'r' as third letter (farm)
    - - Often attribute meaning to this fluctuation
      - Seeking treatment: @ lowest, feeling better: attributed to treatment
      - Extreme observtations followed by moderate obervatoins
    - - How close match typical average member of the that category
      - Neglect base rate information