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valuing stocks (the dividend-discount model (hold stock for 1 year (total…
valuing stocks
the dividend-discount model
hold stock for 1 year
total return = rE=dividend yield+capital gain rate
the expected total return of the stock should equal the expected return of other investments available in the market with equivalent risk
multi-year investor
constant dividend growth g
dividend=EPS X dividend payout rate (决定股利增长率g)
增加净收益=new investment x return on it
retain earning and invest=earning x retention rate
dividend growth rate = earning growth rate
公司削减股利以追求成长的效应决定于新投资的回报率 positive NPV
提高股利支付率
减少流通股的股数
两个及以上不同的dividend growth rate
limitations
information, competition, and efficient markets
efficient markets hypothesis
types of market efficiency
weak-form efficiency 过去股价情报
strong-form efficiency 公开于未公开的资讯
semi-strong form efficiency 公开资讯
share repurchases
purpose:通过减少流通股票数，从而增加每股收益和股利
total payout model:对公司所有股权而非单一股票进行估值 （决定股权）
use the growth rate of earning (rather than earnings per share) when forecasting the growth of the firm’s total payouts.
discounted free cash flow model FCF 决定企业价值
enterprise value Vo= market value of equity + debt -cash
给出enterprise value 利用公式再算出股权价值从而得出股价
WACC
if firm has no debt rWACC=rE
valuation multiples 估值：其他可比公司或投资的价值来评估目标公司的价值，非直接评估公司的现金流
P/E
EV/EBITDA公司增长率越高资本需求越低估值乘数越高
limitation
公司之间的差异：例如管理团队/制造工艺
忽略整个行业被市场高估的可能
no clear guide how to adjust for differences in expected growth rates or risks