10) Thinking & Reasoning (SH)
Judgement & Decision Making
Reasoning
Problem solving
Under Risk: Losses & Gains
Complex Decision Making
Heuristics & Biases: reduce effort, quicker decisions
Expert Decision Making
Dual Process Theory
Brain Systems
Informal Logic
Deductive Reasoning
Are Humans Rational?
Planning
Cognitive misers
Heuristics
Analogical Problem Solving
Strategies
Expertise
Outside Conscious Awareness
Decision-making
Judgement
Focus: Accuracy
Selecting an option from many possibilities
Focus: Importance
Consequences: assess quality/success of our decisions
Deciding likelihood of event using incomplete info
Thinking is the action of two systems with distinctive cognitive processes
Type 1: fast, automatic, unconscious, implicit and effortless, context dependent, processes run in parallel
Type 2: Slow, controlled, conscious, explicit, effortful, evidence based and demanding of working memory
Representative Heuristic: Deciding one thing belongs in a category because it appears representative of that category
Base-rates
Taxi Cab Problem (85% green, 15% blue)
Witness is correct 20% of the time
How likely was the cab blue? 41%
The bias = base-rate neglect
Used when there is causal relevant information Eg. 80% of blue cabs appear blue because faded paint means 20% of blue cabs appear green
Motivation to take note of base-rates: Eg. health issues (10% error)
Conjunction Fallacy
More probable on own then the two parts of information together
The Linda Problem: The information given is representative of a bank teller & an activist
Supports dual processing
Use of a secondary task reduced performance: suggest cognitive demanding processes are involved in solving the problem
Ignoring base rates = less confident with answer
Solving Linda Problem correctly took longer: System 2 process at work
Intuitive logic: detecting conflict in their answer; unconscious processing of base rates
Base-rate processing may be a Type 1 processes?: more flexible that previously thought
Availability Heurisitc
Affect Heuristic
Basing a decision on probability of an occurrence by using ease of which it comes to mind
Biases
Irretrievability of instances
Effectiveness of search set
Cognitive load experiments used to increase availability heuristic (Type 1 response)
What you fear most is judged as most prevalent cause of death
Emotions cloud ability to judge properly
Value of heuristics
Adaptive tool box: can be very accurate
Recognition heuristic "Cologne or Herne"
Stopping rule: discrimination between two cities
Decisions rule: make a decision
Search rule: search memory
Controversially: argued that when someone recognises one thing and not the other, then the search stops there
Yet people often consider why they recognise something (Type 2? awareness of heurisitc?)
What heuristic to use
Depends on
Likely outcome & processing demands
Individual differences: intelligence & best heuristic chosen
Nature of task and no. of heuristics available
Natural Frequency Hypothesis
Better at frequencies > fractions/% (rewrite Linda problem = drop of conjunction fallacy by 2/3rds)
However: this might make underlying structure of problem is more apparent
When this is controlled: no sig difference between frequency & probability versions
Normative Decision Theory
Descriptive Decision Theories
Prospect Theory
Problem: most people don't make judgements to maximise utility (idealistic)
People choose between uncertain likelihoods by contrasting expected utility values
Attempt to explain what people actually do whether rational or not
Context, interaction & environment as fundamental components
Loss/risk adverse
Problems
Reference point = current state (hungry VS full) + probability rating = subjective (overestimated low probability events & vise versa)
Decisions based on probability of risk (potential value of loss or gains), not consequence.
Heuristics involved
Sunk-Cost Effect (go to concert sick?)
Framing Effect
Social & moral issues not considered
De-emphasises individual differences (high self esteem, narcissist (high self regard; low sensitivity to punishment; high sensitivity to reward)
Decision influenced by situational aspects (how problem is worded)
Investing resources; continue to pursue course even though it has proved unsuccessful
= subjective utility of decision outcome
Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (Wright, 1984)
Bounded Rationality (Simon, 1957)
Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM)
Recognition Primed Decision Model (RPD)
Unconscious Thought Theory
Complex & time consuming process of identification, weighing, rating to create total utility: especially if multiple attributes are considered
Ideal strategy
Decision making bounded by environment (info) and cognitive constrains (attention)
Satisficing: rational within constraints
Elimination of aspects
Considering one attribute at a time
Value of intuitive judgement: heuristics as tools of efficiency used by expert decision makers
'Real world settings': Pilots, Doctors, Nurses, Jurors, Firefighters
High pressure situations = match situation to acquired patterns
Limitations
Use of experience in the form of a catalouge of patterns
Lacks detail (situational/individual differences?)
Unexpected situations: imagine an outcome
Implict: pattern matching
Explicit/deliberate: mental stimulation
Unconscious thinking is superior to conscious thinking
Integration of large amounts of info
Less contraints
Complex cases best if involve conscious & unconscious thought (Type 1 + Type 2)
Syllogisms
Theories (DP)
Conditional
Deductive: Reasoning from general to specific