10) Thinking & Reasoning (SH)

Judgement & Decision Making

Reasoning

Problem solving

Under Risk: Losses & Gains

Complex Decision Making

Heuristics & Biases: reduce effort, quicker decisions

Expert Decision Making

Dual Process Theory

Brain Systems

Informal Logic

Deductive Reasoning

Are Humans Rational?

Planning

Cognitive misers

Heuristics

Analogical Problem Solving

Strategies

Expertise

Outside Conscious Awareness

Decision-making

Judgement

Focus: Accuracy

Selecting an option from many possibilities

Focus: Importance

Consequences: assess quality/success of our decisions

Deciding likelihood of event using incomplete info

Thinking is the action of two systems with distinctive cognitive processes

Type 1: fast, automatic, unconscious, implicit and effortless, context dependent, processes run in parallel

Type 2: Slow, controlled, conscious, explicit, effortful, evidence based and demanding of working memory

Representative Heuristic: Deciding one thing belongs in a category because it appears representative of that category

Base-rates

Taxi Cab Problem (85% green, 15% blue)

Witness is correct 20% of the time

How likely was the cab blue? 41%

The bias = base-rate neglect

Used when there is causal relevant information Eg. 80% of blue cabs appear blue because faded paint means 20% of blue cabs appear green

Motivation to take note of base-rates: Eg. health issues (10% error)

Conjunction Fallacy

More probable on own then the two parts of information together

The Linda Problem: The information given is representative of a bank teller & an activist

Supports dual processing

Use of a secondary task reduced performance: suggest cognitive demanding processes are involved in solving the problem

Ignoring base rates = less confident with answer

Solving Linda Problem correctly took longer: System 2 process at work

Intuitive logic: detecting conflict in their answer; unconscious processing of base rates

Base-rate processing may be a Type 1 processes?: more flexible that previously thought

Availability Heurisitc

Affect Heuristic

Basing a decision on probability of an occurrence by using ease of which it comes to mind

Biases

Irretrievability of instances

Effectiveness of search set

Cognitive load experiments used to increase availability heuristic (Type 1 response)

What you fear most is judged as most prevalent cause of death

Emotions cloud ability to judge properly

Value of heuristics

Adaptive tool box: can be very accurate

Recognition heuristic "Cologne or Herne"

Stopping rule: discrimination between two cities

Decisions rule: make a decision

Search rule: search memory

Controversially: argued that when someone recognises one thing and not the other, then the search stops there

Yet people often consider why they recognise something (Type 2? awareness of heurisitc?)

What heuristic to use

Depends on

Likely outcome & processing demands

Individual differences: intelligence & best heuristic chosen

Nature of task and no. of heuristics available

Natural Frequency Hypothesis

Better at frequencies > fractions/% (rewrite Linda problem = drop of conjunction fallacy by 2/3rds)

However: this might make underlying structure of problem is more apparent

When this is controlled: no sig difference between frequency & probability versions

Normative Decision Theory

Descriptive Decision Theories

Prospect Theory

Problem: most people don't make judgements to maximise utility (idealistic)

People choose between uncertain likelihoods by contrasting expected utility values

Attempt to explain what people actually do whether rational or not

Context, interaction & environment as fundamental components

Loss/risk adverse

Problems

Reference point = current state (hungry VS full) + probability rating = subjective (overestimated low probability events & vise versa)

Decisions based on probability of risk (potential value of loss or gains), not consequence.

Heuristics involved

Sunk-Cost Effect (go to concert sick?)

Framing Effect

Social & moral issues not considered

De-emphasises individual differences (high self esteem, narcissist (high self regard; low sensitivity to punishment; high sensitivity to reward)

Decision influenced by situational aspects (how problem is worded)

Investing resources; continue to pursue course even though it has proved unsuccessful

= subjective utility of decision outcome

Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (Wright, 1984)

Bounded Rationality (Simon, 1957)

Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM)

Recognition Primed Decision Model (RPD)

Unconscious Thought Theory

Complex & time consuming process of identification, weighing, rating to create total utility: especially if multiple attributes are considered

Ideal strategy

Decision making bounded by environment (info) and cognitive constrains (attention)

Satisficing: rational within constraints

Elimination of aspects

Considering one attribute at a time

Value of intuitive judgement: heuristics as tools of efficiency used by expert decision makers

'Real world settings': Pilots, Doctors, Nurses, Jurors, Firefighters

High pressure situations = match situation to acquired patterns

Limitations

Use of experience in the form of a catalouge of patterns

Lacks detail (situational/individual differences?)

Unexpected situations: imagine an outcome

Implict: pattern matching

Explicit/deliberate: mental stimulation

Unconscious thinking is superior to conscious thinking

Integration of large amounts of info

Less contraints

Complex cases best if involve conscious & unconscious thought (Type 1 + Type 2)

Syllogisms

Theories (DP)

Conditional

Deductive: Reasoning from general to specific