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[G5] Growth through Scaling (Scenario Planning (5.examine the robustness…
[G5] Growth through Scaling
1.What is scenario planning
why one use scenario planning
Hard to predict the future
business scaling up its operation
A bet on the future
Alternative of single-point froecast
when to use it
Later times
testament of robustness
Early times
creative and unusual options to consider
5.Module Lessons
strategic growth is intentional and proactive
2.scaling
4.acquisition
1.organic innovation
it's important to understand how growth will help you better achieve, create, develop, defend a valuable competitive position
Risky!
growing too fast
growing too slow
smart growth utilizes two key ideas
1.identifying the right opportunity
2.formulating a careful,robust strategy
overstretching
strategic growth advances a company's mission or purpose
Several ways to grow
3.market entry
Scenario Planning
3.construct scenarios
represent four different possible futures for your industry or market segment
4.visualize those scenarios
then really spend some time brainstorming and exercising your creativity to visualize those scenarios
2.identify the potential key trends and uncertainties
Now trends
uncertainties
the experts might not agree about
We're not sure exactly what the future revenue model of our business industry market segment is gonna be or whatever the case may be
5.examine the robustness of your strategy across all of these different scenarios
is it robust across all of those scenarios?
Would you be a viable, successful organization in each of those futures?
Is your particular strategic direction you're moving in?
1.identify the key strategic issue
key strategic issue
{something that is a really important decision that's going to have a large impact on your future as a business}
4.Strategy is about creating value
Growth is not always imperative
new venture
niche market firms
slow growth firms
Growth?
why?
how?
2.Scenario planning 1, 2, 3
Step 1 of Scenario planning
trend(constant)
multi-plausible future
uncertainties(variables)
identify key strategic issues
Scenario Planning Step 2: Identify key trends and uncertainties
Focus on the big issues which factors will have the most impact on your business?
Seek a variety of perspectives
Distinguish trends from uncertainties
Prioritize uncertainties: which are most important and most uncertain?
Scenario Planning Step 3: Construct Scenarios
Plot some of the different scenarios to help you visualize the differences
Select two of the most important uncertainties, plot on axes
Two different outcomes arising from each of the two uncertainties
Pro tip: each quadrant of the 2X2 should be nearly mutually exclusive
3.Scenario planning step 4 and 5
Scenario Planning Step 4: Visualize those scenarios
Use vivid descriptions => try to place yourself in that potential future scenario
Focus o plausibility but embrace the scenarios you have created
Generate details about these potential futures
Imagine the evolution of each of these different scenarios
Scenario Planning Step 5: Examine robustness of strategy across the different scenarios
Use these possible future to reconsider your strategic decisions
How do current resource allocation decisions "hold up" across scenarios?
Seek to identify opportunities for more robust strategic moves
Repeat the process with different combinations of uncertainties
