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Nuclear Weapons & Non-Proliferation (Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)…
Nuclear Weapons & Non-Proliferation
Why do countries not use nuclear weapons?
Kenneth Waltz
(defensive Neo-realism): would would be much more stable if all states had nuclear weapons, because
deterrence
(the constant threat that s/o could attack) would be so strong that nobody would ever actually use the weapons
Scott Sagan
(Nuclear proliferation expert): maybe in theory, never in practice, g
etting to the point where everyone has a nuclear arsenal is an incredibly destabilising process
; wrong because you're assuming a world in which you have complete information, where you don't miscalculate and where everybody acts rational and where nobody perceives intentions, etc.
Liberal institutionalists:
institutions are key in preventing the use of nuclear weapons
Nina Tannenwald
(Constructivist): nuclear weapon use is a
taboo
; deeply embedded norm (expectation of appropriate behaviour by actors that share a common identity)
Why do states build nuclear weapon arsenals?
Security
: to
increase national security
against foreign threats
Domestic politics
: because they
advance domestic and bureaucratic interests
Norms
: because of their
beliefs
about whether weapon acquisition or restraint is good or bad
Leader psychology
: because leaders
hold a conception of their nation's identity
that makes these weapons desirable
Political economy
: because their country's political economy - whether or to it is globally integrated - c
reates incentives for proliferation or restraint
Strategic culture
: because their strategic culture gives them certain ideas about how valuable the acquisition is
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
1968, came into force in
1970
Established Nuclear Weapons States & Non-nuclear states
(can develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes)
Nuclear Weapons states outside the treaty (Israel, India, Pakistan)
Iran signed in 2010
North Korea was signatory, but withdrew in 2003
Pillars of the treaty
Non-Proliferation
Arms control and disarmament
(hypocrisies in terms of the implementation, no disarmament + inequality of having nuclear weapon states and non-nuclear weapon states)
Peaceful use of nuclear energy
Adresses both
horizontal & vertical proliferation
Criticism
: not universal, unfair, difficult to monitor and enforce
Enforcement
(how do you get states to comply?)
IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency)
Sanctions & Negotiations
Deals, e.g. Iran Deal
Deterrence (Sagan vs. Waltz)
The Nuclear Taboo (Tannenwald, Sagan & Valentino)
Cases
Us-India Strategic Partnership
Controversy: US in fear of the rise of China tried to better relationship with India and gave it access to nuclear weapons (implicitly declared it a nuclear weapon state even though it hasn't signed the NPT)
Iran Deal
Iran signed bc it wanted sanctions lifted
Other countries wanted to get ride of the nuclear threat
implicitly, Iran was recognised as a member of the international community
A few days ago, the US under Trump withdrew from the deal
North Korea, the Six Party Talks & the Current Crisis
North Korea wants nuclear capacity because it feels existentially under attack
Debate: What does one do? Diplomacy & Talks? Military action?
North Korea has no interest in joining NPT; has nuclear capacity
Impact of Nuclear Weapons on IR
International Power Structure
Initially,
US monopoly over the atomic weapons made it the most powerful nation
in the world
When USSR secured nuclear weapons, it led to the e
mergence of bipolarity
in the IR system
got transformed into a multipolar structure
when Britain, France and China acquired nuclear weapons
Change of concept of war: simple war --> total war
New basis of national power