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Presidential Elections (1. Primaries & Caucuses (What States Decide…
Presidential Elections
1. Primaries & Caucuses
Functions
- To show the popularity of the presidential candidate
- To choose delegates to go to the National Party Conventions
Definitions
Primary = an election to select a party's candidate for the presidency
Caucus = a meeting to select a party's candidate for the presidency (most states have primaries not caucuses)
What States Decide
- Whether to have a primary or caucus
- When to hold it- more states are doing frontloading, where they hold the primary early to try to have more importance in the choosing of candidates
- How to conduct the primary eg. Pennsylvania used E-voting
- Who can vote. Closed primary = only members of the party can vote for that party's candidate. Open primary = anyone can vote
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- How to allocate the delegates- in most states candidates get delegates based on the number of votes they get- a proportional primary. In some, whoever gets the most votes wins all that state's delegates- winner takes all.
The Invisible Primary
This is the time in the year or so before the primaries where potential candidates try to gainr recognition. They will try to mentioned in the press, get coverage on TV and visit key Primary states like New Hampshire or Iowa before fundraising and announcing their candidacy.
An example is Obama who announced he was running for the presidency almost a year before the first primary.
Since 1988 the Republicans have nominated as their candidate the person who was ahead in the opinion polls 5/6 times and the Democrats have 3/6 times.
Advantages
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As it's in the public eye, it's less corrupt than the 'smoke filled rooms' of olden times where agreements were made secretly
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Disadvantages
Turnout is usually low- 2016 and 2008 were exceptions with less than 20% of eligible voters usually showing up
Voters aren't representative of the general population as they are usually more ideological, elderly and better educated
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Potential Reform
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A series of 4 regional primaries, for the Northeast, the South, the Midwest and the West
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Problems with Reform
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To limit spending, an Act of Congress would be needed that the Supreme Court doesn't deem unconstitutional
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4. Electoral College
How It Works
Each state has a certain number of electoral college votes, which is the number of their representatives in Congress
To win, a president must have an absolute majority of electoral college votes- at least 270
Whichever candidate gets the most popular votes in a state gets all of that state's electoral votes
This system has only failed twice (both in the 1800s)
Advantages
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Promotes a 'two-horse race' with the winner likely to receive over 50% of the vote (in only 4 elections has there been a 'minority' winner.
If a different system were used, it would only alter the results of two elections (2000 and 2016)
Disadvantages
Small states are over-represented- eg. Wyoming, despite having fewer electoral votes has fewer people to each electoral vote than California which means their vote matters more.
Winner-takes-all can distort the result, eg. in 2008 Obama got 52% of the popular vote but 68% of the Electoral College votes
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It's unfair to minor parties eg. Perot in 1992 got 19% of the popular vote but no electoral college votes
Possible Reforms
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Abolish the Electoral College and decide the election based on the popular vote. However this would encourage a multi-candidate election
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