Voting Behaviour (Religion (There are much stronger trends with religions…
Party affiliation is extremely important in voting. in 2008 71% of voters identified with one of the two major parties
In 2016 89% of Democrates voted for Clinton and 90% of Republicans voted for Trump
In the elections between 1952-2008, the party with the highest level of support from its own identifiers won out of 12 of 15 occasions.
However in 2016 this was not the case as Trump had very mixed suport from both his own party and ordinary voters
Winning the election is as much about mobilising your own supporters as changing the minds of opponents. Your supporters need to be encouraged to get out and vote.
Linked to this is the Republicans making efforts to prevent minorities from voting in 2016 as they changed laws on voter fraud.
Women are more likely to be registered voters than men and turn out more in elections
In recent elections the trend has been for men to be more supportive of Republicans. 2016 had the largest gender gap in history with women tending to vote Clinton and white men becoming more right wing
Women are more likely to be registered Democrats than Republicans
Reasons for the Gender Gap
Abortion- Republicans tend to be pro-life
Defence- women tend to favour lower levels of spending on defence, the Democrat position
Law and order- women tend to oppose capital punishment, a Democrat position
Gun control- women tend to be in favour of gun control
Women's rights- Democrats supported the Equal Rights Amendment whilst Republicans opposed it
In 2016 88% of black voters voted Clinton.
58% of white voters voted Trump.
Black people make up about 10% of the electorate
Traditionally, black people vote Democrat due to the party's history of the New Deal (Roosevelt) and civil rights laws in the 60s.
Democrats are also more likely to protect black people using things like affirmative action
African American support for the Democrats has never dropped before 83% since 1980.
In 2008 support was 95%
Cubans, Mexicans and Puerto Rican Americans are a growing demographic which makes them very important
The Latino vote increased from 10% to 11% in 2016, showing a surge in the amount voting
About 30% of Hispanics voted Republican in the last 3 election cycles, which is perhaps due to religion- many Hispanics are Catholic meaning they favour the Republicans' pro-life policies. Trump recognised this and met up with several Latino religious leaders.
There are much stronger trends with religions and voting than in the UK
- tend to vote Republican, with 54% voting Republican in 2008, perhaps linking to evangelical or 'white voter' values
- tend to vote Democrat despite the abortion debate. In 2008 54% voted Democrat.
- tend to vote Democrat with 62% voting Clinton in 2016. They have done this in every election since WW2. However they are only 3% of the electorate and are not as influential as Protestants or Catholics.
-7 in 10 Mormons identifies as a Republican
There is a high correlation between attending religious services an voting Republican- especially notable in 2000
There is a strong correlation between wealth and support of the parties
In 2008 Obama won a majority amongst the very poor- 73%
Of the 52% of voters who earn over $50,000 a year, 41% voted for Trump
Wealthy people favour the Republicans as they favour low taxation and little intervention in business
Democrat policies such as Obamacare are appealing to poor people
- cities like New York and and Philadelphia tend to support Democrat. This is an issue as demographically, it's a declining region
- California and Washington voted solidly for Clinton in 1992 and 1996 and Obama won all 3 west coast states in 2008
in 2008 the South was the only region to vote Republican. The South is a demographically growing region
The Midwest is the battleground as it consists of many swing states. Presidential elections are largely won in Missouri, Michigan and Ohio. In all the elections 1960-2004, whoever won Missouri won overall.
Ohio has voted for the winner in every election since 1964
: Clinton ran with the slogan 'It's the economy, stupid!'. Those who thought the economy was in poor shape voted for him 65%. Those who thought it was in good shape voted Bush 82%. However, those who thought it was in poor shape were the majority
Bush also suffered because he was trumpeting his foreign policy success, but only 8% of voters thought foreign policy was an important issue.
the four main issues were the economy, education, social security and taxes. Voters preferred Al Gore's position on the first 3, but Bush had a majority of 80% to 17% on taxation.
the main issues were moral values, the economy, terrorism and Iraq. This is why Bush won due to his record on foreign policies and Christian values.
the economy and Iraq were the main issues, which Obama promised to address throughout his campaign (Yes we can!)
immigration, terrorism and loss of trade were key issues that Trump hugely capitalised on
The Old Democrat 'New Deal Coalition' (between Democrats and urban workers, farmers and Southerners) has weakened
During the 90s Clinton tried to make the Democrats more centrist (The Third Way) instead of traditionally liberal
The Democrats have lost significant support from white Southern voters and struggle to attract men to the party, although they are still strong in the Northeast
The Republicans struggle to attract women and ethnic minorities (although there was an increase in Hispanic Republicans in 2016)
Typical Democrat blocs: blue collar, unionised workers, urban dwellers, West & Northeast, Catholics, Jewish people, racial minorities, women, liberals, the less wealthy and the less educated
Typical Republican blocs: white-collar, professional workers, suburban & rural, 'the Bible Belt', Protestants (especially Evangelicals), whites, men, conservatives, the wealthy and the college educated