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Modeling & Analysis (Major Modeling Issues (Problem Identification…
Modeling & Analysis
MSS Modeling
Key element
Reduce cost &
Increase revenue
Major Modeling Issues
Problem Identification &
Environment Analysis
Scanning the environment
to figure out what problems exist &
can be solved via a model
Variable
Identification
Identifying the critical factors in a model
Forecasting
Predict future
Model Category
Select correct type of model
for problem solving
Model Management
Knowledge-Based Management
Model Category
Optimization of problems
with few alternatives
Decision Table
Decision Tree
Optimization
via algorithm
Linear programming
Other mathematical models
Heuristic
Expert system
Heuristic programming
Optimization via
analytic formula
Simulation
Predictive
HMM
Forecasting model
Model Classifier
Static
Single snapshot of a situation
Occur in single interval
Repeatable
Steady state
To find optimal operating parameters
Unvarying
Continuous
Primary tool for process design
Dynamic
Represent scenarios that
change over time
Time dependant
Represent trend over time
Occurence may not repeat
Realistic -> Extends static models
Evaluation
Risk
(Risk Analysis)
Prob. of each several outcomes occuring
Level of uncertainty -> Expected value (risk)
Calculate & select the best
expected value
Uncertainty
Several outcomes for each alternative
Cannot estimate the occurrence of possible outcome
Become more difficult if
insufficient information
Certainty
Complete knowledge is available
Potential outcomes are known
Easy develop
May yield optimal solution
Influence Diagram
Graphical representation
of a model used to assist in model design
Framework of MSS
Decision variable
Uncontrollable variable
Outcome/Result
Methodology
Spreadsheet
Decision Tree / Decision Table
Mathematical
Heuristic Programming
Simulation
Time Dependent vs Independent
Discrete vs Continuous
Stoachastic vs Deterministic
Steady vs Transient
Visual Interactive Modeling (VIM)
