Forecasting on investment banking's performance Synthesis Matrix…
Forecasting on investment banking's performance
Gathering on the specific objectives (empirical research)
a. Three months interbank rate in the UK (LIBOR) and Germany (EURIBOR).
b. 10Y government bond yields.
Source 2: Logistics Company
203 micro and small firms operating in North West Italy
British companies at risk
Data form Market Observation Post System and Taiwan Economic Journal.
Interest rate forecasts----> ++ financial market participants’ investment decisions.
Accurate prediction---->++ allocate investment, meet demands for transportation, manage future income and costs, solve supply chain problems and improve competitive advantages
forecasts on future inflation
a.policymakers---->conducting monetary and fiscal policy
b.investors---->hedging the risk
c.firms---->making investment decisions and setting prices
possible to recognize failing companies in advance
Source 1:The root mean squared error (RMSE)
Source 2: DEA model
Source 3: Time-series forecasts, forecasts based on the Phillips curve, forecasts from the yield curve, and surveys.
Source 4: The hubris model and Hypotheses development and data methodology for the budget forecasts
Source 5: Discriminant analysis
Financial forecasting----->overconfident forecast---->-optimistic prediction----->make the firm default.
Source 6: Investigating whether target companies would refer to the forecasting result