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Forecasting on investment banking's performance Synthesis Matrix…
Forecasting on investment banking's performance
Synthesis Matrix
Gathering on the specific objectives (empirical research)
Source 1:
a. Three months interbank rate in the UK (LIBOR) and Germany (EURIBOR).
b. 10Y government bond yields.
Source 2: Logistics Company
Source 4:
203 micro and small firms operating in North West Italy
Source 5:
British companies at risk
of failure
Source 6:
Data form Market Observation Post System and Taiwan Economic Journal.
Forecasting benefit
Source 1:
Interest rate forecasts----> ++ financial market participants’ investment decisions.
Source 2:
Accurate prediction---->++ allocate investment, meet demands for transportation, manage future income and costs, solve supply chain problems and improve competitive advantages
Source 3:
forecasts on future inflation
a.policymakers---->conducting monetary and fiscal policy
b.investors---->hedging the risk
c.firms---->making investment decisions and setting prices
Source 4:
possible to recognize failing companies in advance
Forecasting method
Source 1:The root mean squared error (RMSE)
Source 2: DEA model
Source 3: Time-series forecasts, forecasts based on the Phillips curve, forecasts from the yield curve, and surveys.
Source 4: The hubris model and Hypotheses development and data methodology for the budget forecasts
Source 5: Discriminant analysis
Forecasting worries
Source 4:
Financial forecasting----->overconfident forecast---->-optimistic prediction----->make the firm default.
Source 6: Investigating whether target companies would refer to the forecasting result