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Conceptual Models (Negotiation as a game (Prize: Endgame (Boardgames have…

- - - - Nations are the actor
      - Consider all options unilaterally & act rationally
      - Picks option with highest payoff
      - This in the Cuban Missle Crisis #
        
        Why did USSR place offensive missiles in Cuba
        
        Soviets bridged the missle gap
        
        Turkey
        
        Why a blockade?
        
        Pushes next move to USSR
        
        Why did USSR step back
        
        MAD
      - Weaknesses
        
        High Saliency :warning:
        
        Perception of threat
        
        Crisis Barganing
        
        Short Time Horizon
        
        High Anxiety
        
        Imperfect Information
    - - Crisises are broken down and each piece is handed to indivdual organizations
        
        Organizations follow set routines
        
        Narrow Minded
        
        Leaders go towards solutions that limit short-term uncertainty
        
        “Satisficing” due to time and resource limitations :warning:
      - This in the Cuban Missle Crisis
        
        Why did the USSR decide to place offensive missiles in Cuba
        
        Thought they could do secretly but mistakes were made
        
        Why did we do a damn blockade
        
        Navy was good as hell
        
        Why did the USSR withdraw the missles
        
        No backup plan
        
        Gov command decisions already made based on how orgs go through Standard Operating Procedures
    - - The nature of problems of Foreign Policy permits fundamental disagreement among reasonable men concerning what ought to be done
        
        Moves in chess game explained by debates among players with seperate and unequal power over particular pieces
      - State actors seek separate goals
        
        Agreed upon policy might erode over time
        
        Situation Changes
        
        Organizational interests evolve
        
        Individuals gain and lose bureaucratic power, status, and access to critical information
        
        Where you sit determines where you stand
      - Cuban Missle Crisis
        
        Why did USSR put offensive missles in cuba
        
        Khruschev was securing his political base
        
        Why did the US respond to the missle crisis with a blockade
        
        Congressional pressure and Robert Kennedy's influence
        
        Why did the USSR back off
        
        Kennedy allowed Khruschev to save face
  - - - Do nothing
      - Diplomacy
      - Warning
      - Blockade
      - Airstrike
      - Invasion
  - - - Primarrily championed due to Rational Actor Model
        
        But makes people have unreliable assuptions about reality
    - - Certain Bargaining Situations might have mistakes
        
        Crisis Bargainging
        
        Adversiarial Negotiaions
        
        Contensious Domestically