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ESTIMATE PROCESS (Step One: Mission Analysis (Assumptions (Never assume…

- - - - IMD/ Coy+ ?
      - BTG?
      - Coy and Below?
    - - Tactical group is any element from Div to Bn that has received additional forces from higher.
        
        Dets are specifically task tailored for a singular combat function, such as raid, pursuit, l/u, recce, obstacle etc. Shows their flexibility.
        
        Enabling, Action, and Specialist Elements – Enabling: Supports the success of the mission, typically through security and IDF; Action: The strike force; Specialist element: A shaping element outside of the main enabling forces. May be found at different levels and within the action or enabling elements.
        
        Offense – The en disruption zone on the offense is not necessarily tied to our close/ deep, but more tied to the effect of SHAPING
        
        Defense – Disruption force found in disruption zone for DTG is BTG, BTG is IMD/Coy+.
        
        A Detachment is only given one tactical task
        
        Reserves are specialized (manoeuvre, AT, ALR, special)
        
        2 DTG – Arty Reg (54x 2S19 Msta 62km with RAP, and 18x BM-21s with 30km range), within the DTG theres two Comds an Integrated Fires (Comds anything army in the air and RISTA) and Integrated Support. Surprise on our advance is key, and don’t get fixed! Cam and concealment also
        
        205 Arty Reg – ACRV key system. But, this HQ is a HVT!
        
        2 DTG – AD down to the Pl level. AD Reg (16x SA-15, 12km range).
        
        201 Mech BTG – They have a CSS Coy+ to support a brigade with 3x our assets;
        
        Equipment: Outranged, outgunned, outnumbered. Don’t go head on, use surprise, use ground, AAs unexpected, use a different asset from Leo2 to attach mech inf.
        
        Div has bakeries.
        
        DTG medical is their role 3.
      - (Factor – statement of fact – deduction)
        Size: Platoon or Platoon-minus? Yes (Deduction: Can destroy). No it is a Coy or higher (Deduction: Need more resources to destroy / must mitigate internally).
        Activities: In-place? Yes (deduction: can do hasty attack). Moving (deduction: meeting engagement, further deduction: must plan for it using SOPs, further deduction: must have eyes outward to see them, further deduction: must task lead tank troops). Also, what are they doing? Are they digging obstacles? Yes (deduction: Engineers in breaching teams during assault).
        Location: Located in other Cbt Tm’s area but can be seen? Yes (deduction: pass info to Coy 2IC immediately, further deduction: mention this as a task to all Pl / Tp Comds). En location on a boundary? Yes (deduction: co-ord needed with flanking Cbt Tm Comd, further deduction: 2IC must rely to C/S 0 immediately, further deduction: task 2IC in groupings and tasks).
        Unit: Armd? Yes (deduction: tank heavy, further deduction: need x number of tank troops up front on advance to contact, further deduction: C/S T31 / T32 / T33 up front). Inf? Cbt Tm? Engr? Arty? Log? Special Forces?
        Tactics: OPFOR doctrine. 1 x CSO (1 x tank with 3 x BMP-2s) with 4 x tanks for counter-attack. (Deduction: Task T31 / T32 / I31 / I32 to be prepared to repel counterattack during consolidation, further deduction: in groupings and tasks).
        Equipment: T-72? Yes (deduction: can destroy with my tanks). BMP-2? (deduction: can destroy with my tanks and LAVs). Cbt Tm? Engr? Arty? Log? Special Forces?
        Habits: Good or bad habits? Always attacks at daylight (deduction: stand-to at 0500 hours). Never uses obstacles (deduction: can do frontals or envelopments).
        Intent: Staying in-place? Yes (deduction: can do hasty attack). Effecting a delay? Yes (deduction: must conduct pursuit, further deduction: must use speed, further deduction: use tanks up front with infantry in-behind Cbt Tm HQ, further deduction: Groupings and tasks T31 / T32 / T33 in front).
        Morale: High (deduction: will stay and fight). Low (deduction: will surrender or withdraw / retreat).
        What are the big deductions you can make from all of the above: CAN THE ENEMY DEFEAT ME WITH THE RESOURCES HE HAS? CAN I DEFEAT THE ENEMY?
    - - On the March?
        
        Meeting engagement
        
        Must have recce outward to define
        
        Armd Elms lead?
      - Defense?
      - Enabling/ Shaping?
        
        Digging obstacles?
        
        Engr req'd for breach
    - - Layout of defenses?
    - - They reinforce success and allow failure to falter. DECEPTION?
      - Reserves are normally specialized (Manoeuvre, ALR, AT, MSD/MOD, etc). DECEPTION?
      - Almost always CA groupings (3x Mech 1xArmd) with +1 elm in spt
    - - AVN
        
        HALOs at DTG, means Div ME
      - AD
        
        SA-18 as Pl lvl wpn
        
        16x SA-15 in AD Reg, 12km range.
        
        SA-15 – can only track one target, so all the AF at once!
        
        Can be neutralized by our EW! Can be suppressed with our Arty
      - CSS
        
        202 Mech Infy BTG has a CSS Coy+ so spt a Bde 3x our assets
        
        Where are they pulling from?
      - IDF
        
        205 Arty Reg - ACRV key system - HQ is HVT!
        
        Our CSS - Can they project (and intend to) into our RA?
      - MECH
      - ARMD
      - AT
        
        En AT is more effective when static
      - ENG
      - C2
        
        Can disrupt with EW - sow confusion, slow cmov/ qrf
  - - - List your own resources internally to the Square Cbt Tm.
        Atts / Dets: Put them here, not in the “Assigned Tasks” in Step 1.
        Higher Supporting units: air, naval, CIMIC, PsyOps, Artillery, Engineer. (deduction: would like to ask for additional X resources).
        Flanking units: Who is on your left? Right? Battlefield symmetry on the advance (deduction: 2IC will pass info to C/S 0 (SOP).
        Units conducting RPOL / FPOL (deduction: must establish meeting-up point, must have Liaison officers, further deduction: task 1 Pl Comd to recommend meeting-up point and provide LO).
        What’s the big deduction you can make from all of the above: WHETHER I HAVE ENOUGH RESOURCES TO ACCOMPLISH THE MISSION (can I defeat the enemy with the resources I have?)
        What if you deduce that you don’t? Ask for more!
        What if your Comd cannot give you any more? Do it internally or ask for another unit to do it.
    - - Misc Thoughts
        
        BG willl depend heavily on convoys
        
        CSS Coy generally fits into a 750mSq, not thinking of terrain/ concealment
      - Key Principles
        
        foresight
        
        planning
        
        execution
        
        responsiveness
        
        right time
        
        right place
        
        survivability
        
        flexibility/ simplicity
        
        common CP/DPs
        
        all class resupp at once
      - CONSIDERATIONS
        
        centralized vs decentralized?
        
        LoCs/ MSRs?
        
        Force Pro?
        
        Follow-on Operations?
        
        Sustainment syncronization?
        
        DP - Drop Off, open for short period of time between 1st and 2nd line. Is requested.
        
        CP - Cdty Pt, Exchanges, open for sustained period of time (tactical costco). Is planned.
        
        RP - Replen Point is tactical costco
        
        Sustainment Priorities?
        
        Priority of repair
        
        Robbing/ Cannibalization will speed Maint Tempo but follow-on could fuck you/ result in complete loss of veh
        
        Key sustainment tasks?
        
        Should be minimal to CSS
        
        What will be the threat along the routes?
        
        Is there an active en air threat?
        
        Are the restrictions on vehicle movement grouping sized?
        
        Demand?
        
        MTV may give a hint
        
        msn specific reqs the cqs will need?
        
        will they need sp during the assault? and for how long?
        
        what will they need (Med, maint, supplies, tpt)?
        
        will they need anything during the attack (additional ammo)?
        
        What will they need immediately after the attack?
        
        What can wait until the nightly replenishment cycle?
        
        Who will need to be involved in the sp being provided? Can the support elements provide it internally through their A1s?
        
        Responsibility to move refugees, PWs, evacuees, stragglers, etc?
        
        What are the anticipated number of casualties?
        
        Distance?
        
        How far, and what's the tempo? Need to push A2 fwd prior to completion? Can you keep it back?
        
        Destination?
        
        Near ASR/MSR?
        
        BUA or Bush?
        
        where is it?
        
        what is the environment like?
        
        is there hard pack roads there?
        
        potential dp/ecp/ccp sites near the loc?
        
        restricted rtes?
        
        what types of veh can approach the locn?
        
        Duration?
        
        Does MTV last throughout?
        
        How far will the supported force be mvg fwd?
        
        What are my MED/CASEVAC timelines going to be?
        
        How far back will I need to recover?
        
        Will the A2 need to move?
        
        If it does, how far will it be from 2nd line supply, maintenance, medical, etc
        
        Risk?
        
        High risk = possible high casualties (pers and veh)
        
        How long is each phase expected to take?
        
        Medical Support? Roles 1-3 location?
      - DECUCTIONS
        
        Replenishment
        
        Maintenance
        
        Medical Plan
        
        MEDEVAC must be able to cover whole of dispersed AO
        
        Coord at highest level, yet decentralized
        
        Should have same mobility as the elm they support
        
        Golden hour rule means role 3 should be within 6hrs, Role 2 within One away (initial surgery)
        
        Personnel
        
        Provost (PW, TCP, MPs, DPRE)
        
        Civilian
      - FACTORS
        
        Where?
        
        Why are we here?
        
        How do we support?
        
        Medical: Units must be employed as far fwd as possible. Plans must be flexible - med units are not held in reserve.
        
        Fwd Positioning: Pre-position supplies and support facilities and keep them mobile for the offense.
        
        Ammo/ POL: Normally large volume - time and resource intensive.
        
        Maint: Repairs as far fwd as possible - reduces demand on evac capabilities and allows return to cbt asap.
        
        Traffic control: To ensure approach march is secure, replen can occur, evac of cas, marking of breach, and deployment of reserves is not impeded.
        
        How do we get support?
        
        BSB for Cbt Supplies
        
        JTFSC/ NSE for Can specific through BSB
        
        What next?
        
        What if?
        
        Offense or Defense?
        
        Defense - Covering Force Battle: Preposistion defensive sotres, create ammo dumps, normal replen plan, location far back in rear as possible but depends on AO. Develop supply routes during battle.
        
        Defense - MDA: Replace used/ lost equipment, A1 conducts rolling replen, A2 push fwd/ reach back, cas evac air and ground, pers/ crew replacements.
    - - Key Principles
        
        a. offensive action;
        b. concentration of force (in space but also time);
        c. surprise;
        d. security; and
        e. flexibility.
        
        Fundamentals of Offense: Info Gathering, Simplicity, Shock Action, Depth, Balance, Reserves.
      - FACTORS
        
        CLEAR: 1. Who can do it? Inf, Eng, Armd reqd. 2. Time to complete? Very time consuming and deliberate. 3. Size of area to clear? Resource heavy - secu reqd throughout. 4. No EN remains? Area is now clear.
        
        NEUTRALIZE: Render capability ineffective. Normally arty?
        
        SECURE: With our without force. 1. Who can do it? Any element but req's infy to hold. 2. Time? Less than clear. 3. Amount it is to be secured? Holding terrain probably goes across phases. 4. Destruction of in place for not required? May imply lack of en.
        
        SEIZE: Clear area and obtain control? Must be infy to hold. Implies en presence likely prepared in defense. Seize however does not come with lengthy hold/ retain.
        
        BREACH: 50% losses expected
        
        Covering Force Battle:
        
        Fire Supprt - IOT break a covering force cealn from the en, it may be required for MDA to reveal itself in a SBF task
        
        Armd/IFV - Provide both mobility and DF and are key to covering force battle
        
        Subsequent tasks: Preferable to not require covering force units immediately after use in Covering Force
        
        Is a battle of manoeuvre: No prepared positions, will req AD
        
        Success criteria: May be attrition-based, time-based, or own forces-based.
        
        MDA
        
        Info Management Plan: IM shit, comms links, data shit...
        
        Barrier Plan (Engr Advisor): What affect can be achieved within your intent?
        
        Defensive Fire Plan (Bty Comd): 1. Close DF (BG lvl) - Meant to break up en assault along ML approaches, as close as 600m to FLOT. Have 2-3 DF per BG and a FPF - broken area GTFO/ VG target. 2. DF in Depth (Fmnt lvl)
        
        ISTAR Plan (BG HQ):
        
        C-MOV plan (BG HQ): Length of routes, what tasks to accomplish, how they can support, when it'll be needed. Don't have a route using a bridge! Three tasks for cmov force: REINFORCE, BLOCK, or C-ATK
        
        AD Plan (Fmnt lvl): Covering HVTs, C2 nodes
        
        EW Plan (Fmnt lvl)
        
        CSS Plan (OC 8)
        
        DF Plan (BG HQ)
        
        Long Range Attrition vs Surprise
        
        Purpose of Reserve: Flexibility - only way Comd can influence battle once obj have been fought through. Once committed, reserve become the decisive action/ ME. Has to be committed as a whole, not piecemealed out. Can be given a bunch of BPT but no committed. Once committed, reconstitute another.
      - CONSIDERATIONS
        
        If there are more tasks than there are troops available to do them, the attack is divided into phases. Amongst other considerations, availability of fire support may also necessitate phasing.
        
        4 Forms of Manoeuvre: Frontal, Envelopment, Double, Turn. USE ONE OF THESE! Also, infiltration (deep ops - more shaping) and penetration
        
        DFS
        
        Tasks:
        
        Support the consolidatoin
        
        Provide Flank Protection
        
        Cover movement, including the assault force
        
        Assisting securing the LD
        
        During the advance to provide a reserve of AT fire
        
        Provide surveillance and fire into designated target areas
        
        Destroy en AFVs
        
        Destroy en fortifications
        
        Provide close and intimate support to the infantry
        
        Participate in covering force actions
        
        Principles:
        
        Enfilade: AT wpns should be sited so that as many targets as possible fall into the weapons beaten zone. This ensures that the effort required to re-align the weapon's sight onto follow on targets is minimal, thus allowing the most rapid engagement time as is humanly possible. As well, tanks should be engaged on their flanks because their target mass is great and their armour is not as thick. TOW can take advantage of both of these concepts when engaging from the flank an EN force deployed into extended formation.
        
        Defilade: TOW must be sited to gain the protection of the ground from the expected direction of the enemy ensuring that the weapon is protected from the enemy's observation and direct fire. Detachments should not be sited on forward slopes where escape is difficult and incoming effective direct fire likely; but they can be sited behind a hill, crest line or embankment.
        
        Mutual Support: TOW must be sited so that there is mutual support within the section and pl. Within the sect, each wpn system should be able to cover as much of the sect arc of fire as possible. Det's will be given interlocking arcs of fire. At the pl level, sect may also be given interlocking arcs of fire but the usual method will be to assign section sectors of fire. Mutual support is then provided by having sect switch their fire from one sector to another.
        
        Factors for Siting:
        
        Standoff distance – engage tanks beyond their effective range;
        
        Cover and concealment - Concealment must be achieved from ground and air observation. The back blast (weapon signature and its effect on camouflage) must also be considered; As well, routes to alternate positions, resupply and withdrawal must be covered.
        
        Enemy – The Enemy's strength, the capabilities of his equipment and his doctrine will weigh considerably when determining how one's anti-armour resources should be employed
        
        Ground – Anti-armour weapons must be employed on the ground in accordance with the principles of siting. Where possible, TOW should be employed in areas where best advantage can be made from their standoff capability. The ground has to be christened to allow detachments to become familiar with their area of responsibility and to prepare easily understood range cards. The maximum range line will have to be identified with terrain features and, if time allows, each commander should walk his area of responsibility to become completely familiar with it;
        
        Visibility - Meteorological reports will determine the amount of ambient light available. As well, precipitation will have negative effects on both day and thermal imaging sight capabilities
        
        Own troops - DFS sections/platoons must coordinate with the commander of troops operating in the same area of responsibility. This will ensure that redundancy and gaps in planning are eliminated
        
        Arcs of fire and observation -Arcs of fire should be inter-locked and mutually supporting. The weapon system's optical and thermal imagery capabilities will be an important part of the surveillance and target acquisition plan;
        
        Local protection - Although TOW will often be far from the FEBA, it is still vulnerable to enemy infiltration. Normally, anti-armour systems will be sited first with dismounted infantry sited to protect those systems
        
        Track and noise discipline - Good track discipline denies the enemy knowledge of your strength and minimizes your chances of being detected. Covered routes between primary, secondary and/or alternate positions must be chosen and reconnoitered. Routes to rendezvous and resupply points must also be established. Movement by foot may be necessary. Track discipline is the responsibility of every man in the section. DP and RV points must be easily recognizable and secure. In many cases, they will be one and the same;
        
        Flexibility - Detachments must be prepared to react quickly to different/changing situations. Coordination must be done between detachments. The ability to move from primary to secondary positions quickly and with maximum protection must be maintained
        
        BBDA - The back blast must be concealed from all angles as much as possible. Dismounted troops in the vicinity must be aware of the danger area
        
        Coordination - The anti-armour plan will include artillery, TOW, tanks, MRAAWs and SRAAWs and must be coordinated by individual commanders on the ground. Liaison with other supporting units must be conducted. The normal rules of liaison apply - units are responsible to liaise with elements on the right
        
        Comms - Communications are extremely important in view of the fact that TOW, in addition to being the most important anti-armour system available to the battle group commander, it also plays a vital part in the surveillance and target acquisition plan
        
        Administration - Administrative considerations include resupply arrangements, maintenance (weapon/vehicle), feeding, rest and defensive routine in a hide area
        
        Artillery
        
        Principles: Cooperation, Concentration of Fire, Flexibility, Simplicity, Surprise
        
        Planning Factors: Time available to prep plan, ammo/ type available, max rate of fire (3r/1m, 2r/3m, 1r/sus), numb/type of guns, accuracy of TA, numb of obs, met, comms, degree of surprise required
        
        Types of Fire: Preperatory (soften up hardened en), Covering (neutralize wpn system), Defensive (hit reserves, cmov, disrupt en organization), C-Bty, Harassing (lower moral, curtail FoM, disturb rest)
        
        Breach
        
        Identify available assets
        
        Doctrinally template En obstacles
        
        Understand SOM
        
        Identify number of lanes required (obj to LD)
        
        Identify assets required per breach
        
        Identify task organization incl. critical engr assets
        
        LOOK THROUGH BG IN OPS for enabler TASKS
        
        1150 x 150 - grnd veh 3 to 8 min
        
        KZ Management:
        
        What is the en SoM
        
        What do I need to kill it?
        
        What do I know about my wpn systems? Range?
        
        How many wpns do I have?
        
        Who shoots where? Designate zones, banding
        
        Pri of Tgts? HVTs. When to engage?
        
        How do I know where he is coming?
        
        How do you ensure the wpn systems can kill their targets (obst plan)?
        
        How do I ensure that the en stays in the KZ? (IDF/obst)
        
        How do I ensure the en destruction? (C-mov/Res: Block, reinforce, counter)
        
        Coord Instr: Anything that impacts more than two elements in the BG
      - DEDUCTIONS
        
        MOUNTING
        
        Rte Maintenance
        
        Selection of AAs
        
        Move to AAs
        
        Obstacle Xing and Breaching
        
        Prep Fire
        
        Infiltration
        
        Rehearsals
        
        Deployment
        
        Security
        
        Info collection
        
        ASSAULT
        
        Concentration of ForceBalance, Rehearsals, Possibility of Additional Assets, Phasing, G&T, Fire plan, Ctrl Measures
        
        Balance
        
        Rehearsals
        
        Possibility of additional assets
        
        Phasing
        
        G&T
        
        Fire Plan
        
        Ctrl Measures
        
        CONSOLIDATION/ EXPLOITATION
        
        Beyond Obj area
        
        Continue to define, locate and suppress EN
        
        Prep for en C-atk
        
        Finalize sustain reqs
        
        Start BP
        
        Improve Rtes (Eng)
        
        Flex reqd to exploit to disrupt C-atk, destroy en CSS, SSE
    - - Key Principles
      - FACTORS
        
        Heavily Armoured enemy? Want something outside of AO? Ask for Bde Recce.
        
        BG Recce lacks protection, and can only carry 48-72hrs DOS
        
        Immediacy?
        
        Proximity? Armd Recce, 15-20km out. BG Recce 5-10km
        
        Latency? (Present but not yet seen). Med recce = find enemy, close recce define the enemy.
      - CONSIDERATIONS
        
        Armd Recce leaves with 72hrs DOS
      - DEDUCTIONS
    - - Key Principles
      - FACTORS
        
        BLOCK: Die in place
      - CONSIDERATIONS
        
        Obstacle plan, at Battle Group: Groups to Engr Tps
      - DEDUCTIONS
    - - Key Principles
      - FACTORS
      - CONSIDERATIONS
      - DEDUCTIONS