Phase V HF: Blueprint Analysis of an Opportunity (Current Watchlist ( ( (,…
Phase V HF: Blueprint Analysis of an Opportunity
A ranking among current opportunities
*solidify a system where the best opportunities get voted up from discussion - expound on that column idea
A reason the market hasn't reacted appropriately yet OR a reason the situation will continue / worsen.
A clear defining of the opportunity
Medium-Term Long - Are we staying in for earnings?
Parabolic Long Hype?
Warning Signs in the form of correlations breaking down
Game-Changers against us
Financial Statements & Ratios
News & Sentiment: What is the consensus?
Historic Perspective (comparable scenarios from past in this stocks or stocks like this)
Relevant Specialised Indices
Relevant Classy ETFs: ones that are actually representative of an index of the underlying group of things
*analysis done on any company will also serve us well in the future should it gain momentum again at some point
Well-Run Industry Incumbents That Represent 'normal' for a company of their characteristics.
BRK: I'm very interested in digging up the BRK model and seeing how it is so powerful and getting a feel for it. Also use how people have copied it as case studies in its replication
Knowing and having perspective on these will give us a good framework through which to view what we find when dissecting companies we actually trade
AIG: this is the most epic short. Let's dig into the story in detail and the way AIG was structured. It had exposure to the real estate market and their assumption was that house prices wouldn't go down in all states at the same time.. use AIG's story to get to know exactly what happened in 08
A Guiding Principle:
In this game there are no fokken answers so the most important thing is to have real perspective on scenarios that you use to make a probabilistic call. This is what makes it so difficult and exciting. You need a synthesis of many different things to beat the market in a big way in anything and on any timeframe.