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The rise of ISIS (2010s (2014 (March of ISIS (Invades parts of Iraq,…
The rise of ISIS
2010s
2014
A-Q exiles Baghdadi
A-Q >< ISIS
ISIS grows stronger in Syria
Assad tolerates it
March of ISIS
Invades parts of Iraq
Scared army
Sunni civilians tolerate it
Since 2014
ISIS invades Kurdish territory
Peshmerga = better-organized
US missiles >< ISIS
Many Muslims from abroad join ISIS
Disillusionned or angry
Religious reasons
Terror attacks (lone wolves)
2013
ISI + Syria (ISIS)
A-Q rejects Baghdadi's power grab
2012
New A-Q branch in Syria
Attacks in Iraqi prisons
2011
Arab Spring
Syrian Civil War
Assad releases jihadist prisoners
US leaves Iraq
A-Q + Zarqawi's group = Islamic State in Iraq
Leader = Baghdadi
Goal = holy war, Caliphate
The fall of ISIS?
No allies or outside funders
Weaker and weaker (Raqqa, Mosul, Kikurk)
Can revert to AQI and be around for years
Surrounded by enemies
1980-90s
1989
USSR leaves
Arab fighters go home
1979
USSR invades Afghanistan
Defend puppet against rebels
Many join rebels
Develop extremist views (Mujahideen)
Bin Laden
Saudi-Arabia
Al-Qaeda
Zarqawi
Jordan
(Future) ISIS
90s
Al-Qaeda becomes global network
BL + Z return to Afghanistan (Taliban)
2000s
2003
US invades Iraq
Saddam removed
Army dissolved
Men join terrorist groups (AQI)
Repeat of '79?
2006
Sunni/Shia civil war
A-Q weakened
Zarqawi killed by US
2001
9/11 (Al-Qaeda)
US invades Afghanistan
Ben Laden flees