POL 130 Final Prompt 4: Neo-Cold War
Do you think that the US and China will find themselves engaged in a new “Cold War” as China’s rise continues? Why or why not? What does your answer say about the relevance of realist IR theory in contemporary international politics?
Will the US and China engage in a new "Cold War" as China continues to rise?
What does this answer say about the relevance of realist IR theory in contemporary international politics?
What is realist IR theory?
Interests
Interactions
Institutions
The state is the dominant actor
States seek security and/or power
States' interests are generally in conflict
The international system is anarchic and institutions exert little independent effect
International institutions reflect the interest of powerful states
International politics is primarily about bargaining, in which coercion always remains a possibility
pg 590/597
China is expected to overtake the US as the word largest economy in the next several decades
The center of economic power will also shift from the west and north to the east and south, as India and Brazil join China in the upper ranks
China has experienced increased wealth and military power
China has been investing in its military and trying to modernize it by using advanced technology
why? what are they preparing for? War?
China also possess a modest arsenal of nuclear weapons that are capable of hitting the US and Europe
Still, the US is still the worlds most dominant military power and it will continue to do so for some time, but China is definitely one to watch out for
The US is also technologically ahead
And it has a MUCH larger nuclear arsenal
But still, the gap between the two countries may shrink over time
History and theory tells us that the rise of a new major power is potentially dangerous bc of its effect on states' interests and the bargaining interaction between them
As a state becomes more powerful, it is more willing to threaten force to change the status quo
A declining state may have incentive to wage preventive war
History has shown that rising power increases the danger of war
Rise of Germany in the 20th century was met with two of the costliest wars in history
However, there definitely are cases in which this isnt true
For example, the transition of power between Britain and the US was fairly peaceful. And there was no conflict when Japan rose to power
Why does It only sometimes end peacefully?
This is mainly because of states' interest: how severely their interests conflict and how costly it is to use military power to force change
So will China's rise be peaceful or will it result in a war?
Some believe that China's rise is dangerous because there are large conflicts of interest between the communist nation and the US
Unlike Japan, China cannot be accommodated in an American-led international order that values capitalism and democracy because it will seek to overturn that order and institute its own
Just as Germany did in the 20th century, China will seek mastery in Asia and push out American influence
The more optimistic view places faith in international and domestic institutions to mitigate the risk of war
This argument holds that China's participation in international institutions, combined with a reform of its domestic institutions, could transform that country's interests so that it could become a supporter, rather than a challenger of the states quo
To do this, you would have to give China a larger say in international organizations, and make it feel included
It increases the benefits that china gets from these institutions, so that its motivated to stay in these institutions
Moves the status quo in chinas favor and increases the costs of war relative to the benefits
Advocates of engagement also hope that this will lead to greater political freedom and democracy in china
Wealth and trade will give rise to a potent middle class that demand political liberalization
In this case, China's rise could be as benign as the rise of the US or Japan
No, I don't think they will find themselves engaged in a cold war
look below for reasons
I don't think realist IR theory is as relevant these days
Our world is very globalized now, and countries heavily depend on one another, states do better when they work together and cooperate. Because if one country goes down, so will others
No I don't think so, yes this rise needs to be taken with caution, but if handled properly, we don't have to worry about the outbreak of war, we can make it a peaceful transition, like it was with Japan and the Us itself. The thing that separates peaceful transitions of power from non peaceful ones are the states' interest, and we do have a lot of interest with China, because, once again our countries are very much co dependent. I believe this is a signal that the realist IR theory is dead in contemporary politics, because of globalization.
the theory states that states interests are generally in conflict