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Chapter 12: Judgement and Reasoning (Detecting Covariation (Covariation …
Chapter 12: Judgement and Reasoning
Judgement
Availability Heuristic
Representativeness Heuristic
Detecting Covariation
Covariation
Relationship between two variables
Strong or weak
Positive or negative
Illusory Covariation
Perception that one variable predicts another
Confirmation bias
More responsible to evidence that confirms beliefs
Base-rate information
Overall likelihood of event happening
Dual-Process Models
Type 1 Thinking
fast
Automatic
Uses heuristics
Type 2 Thinking
slower
-more effortful
more likely to be correct
Influence of Education
Confirmation and Disconfirmation
Induction
Deduction
Confirming evidence
every day the rooster
rows and then the sun rises
Dis-confirming evidence
one day the rooster must
not crow and then see what happens
Confirmation bias
Belief perserverance
Decision Making
Utility maximization
guide decisions
choosing option with the greatest expected value
Alternative view:
Reason-based choice
reasonable, justified
Affective forecasting
generally not accurate
Logic
Categorical syllogisms:
logical arguments
Syllogisms errors are predictable, systematic
One type of error: Belief bias
valid
invalid