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Chapter 12: Judgement and Reasoning; By: Jenny Tran (Attribute…
Chapter 12: Judgement and Reasoning; By: Jenny Tran
Attribute Substitution
use this over frequency estimates
strategy where you rely on easily assessed information as a proxy for info you need
Availability heuristic
ex: Who washes the dishes more?
covariation
characteristics:
positive or negative
strong or weak
illusory covarition
perception that 1 variable predicts another
ex: astrological signs predicting personality
errors:
confirmation bias
tendancy to be more responsive to evidence that confirms your beliefs rather than challenges it
Forms:
fail to adjust their beliefs when there is disconfirming evidence
confirming evidence -> face value; disconfirming evidence -> reinterpret to diminish impact
better memory for confirming evidence
fail to consider alternative hypothesis that might explain available data
overcome these errors by using base-rate information
information about how frequently something occurs in general
ex: Leech study
Syllogism
categorical syllogism: type of logical argument that begins with two assertions
All A are B; All D are M; Therefore all D are B
Errors
predictable and systematic
Factors:
Negatives are involved
Terms are abstract and not concrete
Ex: Four card task
Risks
Assume you are 300 richer. A: sure gain of 100; B: 50% chance to gain 200, 50% nothing
more likely to be risk aversive
frame casts choice in terms of gains, refuse to gamble and hold onto what they have
Assume you are 500 richer. A: Sure loss of 100; B: 50% lose nothing, 50% lose 200
more likely to be risk seeking
frame casts choice in terms of loses, prefer to gamble in hopes of avoiding loss
Reasoned Based Choice
make decisions that we feel good about, reasons are reasonable and justified
study
medical doctors asked how they would treat a patient, Surgery vs Medication -> 50% recommended surgery
Doctors asked Surgery vs Medication #1 vs Medication #2 -> surgery increased to 75%
1 medication available: more persuasive evidence for using it; 2 meds: harder to find persuasive evidence for preferring one over the other
Emotions and Somatic Markers
people's decisions influenced by emotion
Ex: remember scare movies -> palms begin to sweat
use sensations to guide decisions and rely on these sensations to asses options
oribitofrontal cortex
crucial in use of somatic markers
without damage: less risky
damage: favor risky, unable to use markers associated with risk
fail to use "gut feeling" against dangerous choices
Affective Forecasting
ability to predict one's own emotion, most often inaccurate
Study:
asked how they feel after break up, doing bad on exam
consistently over estimate how long feelings will last
underestimate ability to adjust to changes or how easily they'll find an excuse and rationalize their mistake
can predict valence of emotion (good/bad)