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Risk Management: Module 3 - Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis: Risk Impact…
Risk Management: Module 3 - Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis: Risk Impact & Risk Likelihood Matrix; Probability/Impact Risk Rating Matrix; Case Study; Decision Making
PM Plan: Risk Management Plan: Project Documents -- Assumption log, Risk Register, Stakeholder Register --
11.3 Perform Qualitative Analysis
Assumption Log
Origins - fear of harm and probability of harmful event - antoine arnaud (1612 - 1694)
excitement that a gambler feels when betting and probability of winning - Blaise Pascal (1623-1665)
Issue Log
Risk Register
Mandatory Qualitative risk analysis for all projects and project documents - determine probability and impact -- high or low and what priority
Probability is a measure of the degree of uncertainty about potential risk events that, if they occur, would affect the project's objectives. Impact: The potential consequence of the risk event taking place on project objects: scope, cost, schedule and product quality and performance
Probability Scale - 0-1
1 absolutely sure to occur
0 - zero probability of occurrence
Probability- Impact Matrix
Probability-Impact (P-I) 1. probability score 2. impact score
Risk Probability Scale
Threats mirror Opportunities (negative vs positive)
Risk Tolerance of Organizations; Risk Neutral Organization; Risk Averse Organization; Risk Taking Organization
Risk Report
A risk event has only one probability measure but may have multiple impacts
Outputs - Analysed document updates
Inputs -- Project Documents
Expert Judgement, data gathering (interviews);Data Analysis - risk data quality assessment, risk probability and impact; assessment of other risk parameters - interpersonal and team skills - facilitation - Risk categorization, data representation - probability and impact matrix, hierarchical charts and meetings
WBS to evaluate the impact of risks on specific activity/objectives
Risk & Decision Making
Under risk; probablilities)
Under Uncertainty - probabilities cannot be estimated for available states of nature
Under certainty - 100% accuracy
Dimensions of Risk - Risk Increases with Complex Projects
Temporal Proximity
Personal Affinity
Familarity
Corporate Vunerability
Managebility
Globalization
Business Complexity
Organizational Complexity
Technical Complexity
Virtual Teams
Project Risk Categories
External: Legal & regulatory, exchange rates, site & facilities, market & competition, weather, customer relations, the political environment, interest groups, force majeure
Commercial; contractual, finance, liabilities & warranties, cash flow & payment terms; suspension & termination; internal procurement; subcontracts; client stability; applicable laws; partner experience & financial stability
Technical (scope definition, requirements definition; tech. processes, technology, technical interfaces, technology complexity& scaling, performance, reliability, safety & security and Quality & Acceptance
Organizational & project management: Organizational structure & culture; risk toleration & thresholds; corporate policies, resources, information resources & KM; Project management assets & maturity; reputation
Regret Table -- Maximum Regret
RISK