Asia's looming Power Shift (Menon 2013)
Conceptualises "Greater Asia" from Eastern Iran through all the way to Australia, encompassing Asia Far East, China, Japan, and Southeast Asia- connected by multifarious transactions, cooperative and adversarial, resulting in flows of trade and investment, energy pipelines, nationalities, historical legacies that shape present perceptions and shifting power relations, many closely tied to the US, which distribution of power is becoming Greater Asia's eastern theatre, forcing strategic reassessments by states in the region.
These changes cannot be fully understood through the prism of grand theories such as "the clash of civilisations", "the end of history" and globalisation, missing the manifold, complex and contradictory forces shaping Greater Asia. Greater Asia states, not civilisations remain the principal wellsprings of change. In Asia, the effects of culture and religion are fissiparous rather than integrative.
Hinduism as a civilisation not capable of mobilising Asian loyalties and resources, Secularism is the India's founding doctrines. The North remains the "Hindu heartland", the Hindu Nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has shallow roots in Southern India- where most innovation and economic growth resides. Only twice have they formed government.
Samuel P. Huntingdon's view of a Hindu civilisation- India's 170 million Muslims, no such Hindu civilisation has gained traction to threaten the Muslim population
Even weaker is the transnational potential of Hinuism, Array of deities, doctrines and rituals, fractured by differences rooted in region, caste, class and language. Asia's non-hindu population would find their prospects imperiled, not advanced, by becoming associated with a religion based political movement, and it would be defeating for India to adopt a civilsiation strategy at a time when it needs allies to counterbalance a rising China
If China established a Han civilisation coalition would antagonise its minorities- Tibentans and Uighur's, The Chinese leadership can contain restive minorities through repression and co-option but changes in the surrounding region make it much harder, unrest would rise in Tibet and Xinjiang
Civilisation cannot under-grid effective foreign policy, political divide between China and Taiwan illustrate the limits of cultural kind ship in producing political influence, Taiwan would scarcely join a Beijing-led civilisation coalition because it would be against the US, the country most critical to continued Taiwanese independence
An Asian, Islamic bloc is the least likely- no obvious candidate to serve as a hub, however would further unsettle a Pakistan already awash in violence over the definition over who is a true Muslim.
Francis Fukuyama "End of History" thesis, that liberal, democratic capitalism remained the sole global ideology after communism's demise, fares no better as a guide to Asia's future. Widespread ambivalence towards democracy in many countries. Some leaders cite "Asian Values", attacking materialism and hyper-individualism they see in liberal democracy, lack of regard for social obligation, against the American push, emphasising inconsistencies that arise when pragmatic interests and democratic principles collide.
This "Asian values" manifesto has not had much effort throughout Greater Asia, many countries rely on the US like Singapore. All these countries- China, South Korea, Taiwan achieved galloping growth rates when they were not democratic, Authoritarian China much faster at reforms then democratic India. Which is the most attractive model? The point is looking at the effectiveness of delivering rapid economic growth and efficient, clean government
Globalisation thesis- suggests the desire for economic growth and technological powess will force states to adopt market economics and open politics, any government, first priority is maintaining power, leaders resist where liberalisation could threaten their privilege or political power
Asian governments have shaped globalisation as much as it has shaped them. Several restrict trade, foreign investment, manipulate exchange, censoring mass media, block internet sites, assert state ownership over key economic sectors, countries which limited adoption of globalisation tendencies fared better during the 1997 East Asian currency crisis
China overtook Japan in 2010 as the world's 2nd largest economy, by 2030 expected to exceed the US, China has vast power and resources for expanding their standing in greater Asia, China now has a vast middle class, political stability, modern infrastructure, soaring exports, enormous trade surpluses, vast capital reserves, substantial and versatile manufacturing sector, leading trade partner for India, Pakistan, Iran, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Australia Taiwan and Mongolia.
China and India in competition but China is India's biggest trade partner
China and Russia share a strategic relationship, against a uni polar, American dominated world, instead decades of ideological polemics, territorial disputes and militarised borders
China still trails the US in standard indicator: GDP, defence spending, technological innovation, sea and air power. China has increased spending, modernised military industries, purchasing technology from Russia. Means other states in the region need to rethink their defence strategies- to which they have typically relied on the US for their safety.
China's socioeconomic modernisation, lacking a corresponding transformation in China's political order creates a Marxist disjuncture between base and superstructure. New levels of labour unrest, corruption, land grabs, protests increasing, continued socio economic change will only aggravate this misalignment. Deng and successors maintained order by ensuring phenomenal growth rates recasting the lives of the Chinese an create tremendous opportunity, however increased income inequality, pervasive corruption and environmental degradation, the communist party manage social turmoil citing China's rise and embracing nationalism, a faltering China not a rising one could be the challenge that awaits Asia, prolonged instability could have wide repercussions
India's failures hit the headlines- 2012 per capita GDP was 168th worldwide, Its literacy rate still quite low at 73.4%, life expectancy 164th, India's infrastructure a cosntant burden for economic growth and FDI, its anemic industrial-manufacturing base is a major barrier to export led growth, its IT sector employs a tiny proportion of the workforce, unable to offset weaknesses in manufacturing, dismal quality of life statistcs hollow out strong economic growth and sound out a rise as a global power. However impressive strenghts against China in population-control practices, China isn't rich before getting old, India will have an abundant supply of labour
India has a nurtured democracy, power transferred peacefully through 7 decades, however made it harder to organise mass movements against central government. India's diversity also has crises, Violence in Kashmir, Kikh seperation to make Hindi the national language. India's problem is the reverse of China's, a lagging base, Japan, a strong democratic, mono ethnic, high tech state, relies on an alliance with America for protection, the economy relies on imports for everything making it vulnerable to other states, also facing serious demographic problems
China will have substantial superiority in power over other Asian states, they will need to be collective in their strategy, they can no longer rely on the US for overseas expansive defence commitments. Need to increase security consolidation amongst these states, Japan will face the toughest choices, however evidence it will not get rid of its minimalism in military- confidence in Americans, public opposition, regional memories of Japanese militarism. China will balance encirclement strategy by preserving and extending interior lines for supply of energy and trade
China will replace Russia as the state's most consequential for Central Asian states economies and national security
With so many forces at play in the region, tidy frameworks are useless, has several steering wheels and no consensus on a common course, lacking maps and dont trust one another to select a route or destination, problems cannot be addressed without multilateral cooperation will go unattended and fester, problems of nuclear proliferation, terrorism, environmental degradation, territorial disputes and arms races, missed opportunities for cooperation, and may aggrevate abundant sources of tension and conflict resulting from changes in the balance of power