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business cycles (definitions (elements (trough expansion, upswing, peak,…
business cycles
definitions
business cycle refers to the fluctuations in the over all level or pace of economic activity
elements
trough expansion
upswing
peak
contraction
a full cycle in total economic activity is called a
reference cycle
specific cycle is a full cycle exhibited by individual time series
determining the points of the reference cycle
cross sectional data
data organised according to criteria such other than time such as gender age or location.
panel data
combination of time series data and cross sectional data by pooling the two types of data
time series
set of observations of a phenomenon taken at different points in time
types of variations
seasonal variations
random variations
cyclical variations or cycles
trend
the elimination of of the seasonal variation in a time series is called seasonal adjustment.
possible method estimating turning points
analyze as many time series as possible. isolate the cyclical component. combine to form a general picture of the business cycle. these turning points are called
reference turning points or reference dates
reference turning points are determined
collect all available times series
if necessary, first adjust for factors such as price changes and the number of working days
analyse and isolate the cyclical component and determine turning points
assemble information of specific turning points to determine reference turning points.
clustering of turning points involves using a large number of specific turning points to represent all the economic sectors
diffusion index
other approaches to forecasting
single variable extrapolation
anticipation surveys
consensus of observers approach
econometric models
business cycle indicators
leading, coincident and lagging indicators