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Geography Lecture 7 part 1 (2. Effects of Climate Change (Weather (Higher…
Geography Lecture 7 part 1
1. Introduction
Current day global warming is sometimes called anthropogenic global warming as it is caused by an increase in greenhouse gases due to human activity
Additional Information
The current epoch is also sometimes called "Anthropocene" due to the human factor in changing the current climate
2. Effects of Climate Change
Ecosystems
Terrestrial
Climate change can cause direct impact on forests and other climates, thus causing wildlife and other animal species that depend on these climates to suffer (life cycle changes)
Marine
Global climate change will change the temperature of the oceans, thus causing the marine habitats to change. This may alter the available habitat and change the population distribution of organisms. Higher temperatures may also cause toxic algae blooms
Crop Yields
Positive
Shifts growing areas and allows more areas to grow crops (warm enough or cold enough)
Example:
Northern Europe, Winter Wheat production in Sweden would increase by 10-20% by 2050
Negative
Could alter crop production by stressing certain crops and affecting animal husbandry. Low lying areas may be prone to flooding by sea-level rise
Example:
Mediterranean region of South Europe, grain produce would decrease as more space is required for irrigation systems, when areas are already short on water
Weather
Higher maximum and minimum temperatures
Increased incidence of death and illness in older age and urban poor
Increased heat stress in livestock and wildlife
Shift in tourist destinations
Increased electric cooling demand and reduced energy supply reliability
Decreased cold related deaths and illnesses
Decreased risk to some crops, danger to others
Reduced energy heating demand
More intense precipitation events
Increased flood, landslide, avalanche and mudslide damage
Increased soil erosion
Increased flood runoff, leading to more flood-plain aquifers
Increased pressure on governments and private flood insurance + disaster relief
Increased summer drying over most mid-latitude continental interiors and associated risk of drought
Decreased crop yields
Increased damage to building foundations due to ground shrinkage
Decreased water source quantity and quality
Increased tropical cyclone peak wind intensities, mean, and peak precipitation intensities
Increased risk to human life via diseases and others
Increased coastal erosion and damage to coastal installations
Increased damage to coastal infrastructure
Intensified El Nino related events
Decreased farmland productivity
Decreased hydropower potential in drought areas
Increased Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability
Increased flood and drought magnitude
Increased damages in temperate and tropical Asia
Increased variability of mid-latitude storms
Increased risk to human lives
Increased coastal and property losses
Migration of Populations
Change in agricultural and industrial potential could cause migrations, resulting in socioeconomic disruptions, negative health impacts and increased human suffering
Desertification and Droughts
Extreme weather events can alter distribution of food and water supply, causing damage to infrastructure and harming humans. This applies to all countries regardless of developmental stage
Droughts
Areas become drier with climate shift
Those who fail to cope will suffer
Desertification
Is a human-induced phenomenon
Climate change makes it worse
Effects are long term and chronic
Sea level rise
As the ocean warms, it expands
With additional water from melting ice, sea level rises at about 2.4mm a year
Impacts
Coastline Erosion
Inland flooding
Islands disappear (Maldives)
Increase vulnerability of infrastructure to storms
Salt water intrusion into groundwater
Economic loss due to tourism loss (Maldives)
Economic cost due to protective measures
Migration of people
3. Geographical Variations in Effects of Climate Change
Effects of climate change are geographically uneven
Effects
Regional
Africa
Agricultural production will be negatively affected
Losses can be as much as 50% by 2020
Loss of livelihood and social anarchy
Rate of change in ecosystems increases
Water sources are disappearing
Year-long streams have now become seasonal
70-250million people are estimated to be exposed to water stress
Increased drought risk in Northern and Southern Africa
Run-off increase in East Africa
Impact wild food source
Human health can be further be compromised by diseases such as malaria (due to vector growth)
Geographical Variation in Effects of Climate Change
Egypt (Example of Africa)
African country that is vulnerable to water stress
Getting water is a problem, they have already used the maximum
Climate change will make it worse
Agriculture uses 85% of water
20 % of GDP
Most use low efficiency surface irrigation systems
Sea level rise can affect the Nile
Flow and floods may be a problem in the Nile
Temperature rise would reduce crop productivity
Asia
Crop yield decrease
Temperatures and extreme weather events getting worse
Shortage of food, especially in developing countries
Low adaptive capacity and reliability increases vulnerability
Marginal crops at risk (Sorghum, Millet)
Increased river flow and floods due to melting permafrost
Followed by decrease in flow as glaciers recede
Loss in coastal ecosystems due to sea level rise
Flood risk and damage
Seawater intrusion and coastal inundation
Lower fish productivity
Occurrence of climate-induced diseases increased
Changes in hydrological cycle will lead to more diseases
Higher ocean temperature worsens cholera
Habitats of vector and ocean-borne diseases is expanding
Flora and fauna risk extinction
Stability of wetlands, mangroves and coral reefs threatened
24-30% of coral reefs likely to be lost in the next 10-30 years
Bangladesh (Example of Asia)
10-15% more precipitation annually by 2050
More severe cyclones during wet season
Glaciers in Himalayas are melting
20% more river discharge due to precipitation and glacier melt
Sea level rise by 3mm a year
Up to 1m by 2050 if no measures are taken
15% of land inundated by salt water
Coral reefs damaged by storms
Sundarbans is Asia's largest carbon sink
Has many endangered species
Will be flooded soon
Europe
Retreat of Alpine, Scandinavian and Icelandic glaciers
More extreme river discharges and floods
Earlier growing seasons
Earlier arrival of migratory birds since 1970
Increasing burnt forest areas Portugal and Greece
Northward shift of various marine species
Spread of warm water from the Mediterranean
Cold-related mortality to heat-related mortality
Same crop yield despite better technology
Increase in some crop yields
Bluetongue virus and ticks spread in sheep
Australia
Temperature increase by 1-7 degrees by 2070
8-88cm increase in sea level, erosion takes place
Bushfires ('09 Black Saturday, 173 died, 1830 houses destroyed)
Cyclone speed increase by 5-10%
Cyclone rainfall increase by 20-30%
Tides increase by 12-16% in 100 years
Flora and Fauna at risk
Great Barrier Reef: bleaching
1 degree more means substantial loss of coral life
Short term longer growing season
Long term loss in crop productivity
12-25% reduction in flow of Murray river and Darling river basin
7-35% reduction in Melbourne's water supply
1m sea level rise in 30-60 years
700,000 properties inundated
$150 billion
N.America
Decreased snowpack, more winter flooding
Decreased summer flow
More competition for water resources
Crop yield increase by 5-20% with variability
Challenges are crops near suitable temperature range
Crops depend on highly utilized water resources
Cities have more heatwaves
Heatwave number, intensity and duration increase
Adverse health impacts
Coastal communities suffer pollution
Arctic
Loss of sea ice (8% per decade)
Vicious cycle of heating (melt, trap more heat)
Negative impact on polar life
Polar bears deal with diminished hunting grounds
Some fish species may decrease while others will increase
(Arctic char decrease, Herring and Cod increase)
Loss of ice leads to easier transport and gas exploration
Increases danger of icebergs
Permafrost melts
Facilities designed for frozen ground needs to change
Reinforcement and new buildings required
Indigenous communities' way of life affected
Inuits practice subsistence hunting
Animal harvest affected
Carbon in permafrost released
Adds to greenhouse gasses and worsens EGHE
Trade and tourism can increase
More income
Better SOL
May have commercial fishing (Cod and Herring)
Small islands
Low lying islands in the Pacific suffer from sea level rise
Nowhere for people to move to (they're small)
Low height, easy to flood
Vulnerable to storm effects
Dense, growing populations
Degradation of corals that make up the island
Contamination of groundwater by sea water
Limited resources other than sea and tourism
Maldives:
Thin layer of fresh groundwater lost to sea
Carteret Island:
2000 people forced to leave as water sources become salty
Marshall Islands:
High tides and strong winds cause floods
Kiribati:
Two islands have disappeared due to rising sea level
Vanuatu:
Tegua Island has most of its inhabitants forced out
Tuvalu:
11000 people have to be evacuated
Socio-Economic
Changes in agriculture and industry will cause problems for people reliant on them
Example:
Bangladesh is threatened by rising sea levels
Arctic permafrost thaw would lead to extensive changes in the environment
Developing countries seem to suffer the most as they are in areas of high vulnerability and also rely on climate-sensitive industries. They also have less human, institutional and financial ability to adapt and mitigate the impacts of climate change
4. Developed vs. Developing Countries
More unequal world
Developing countries are less tolerant to environmental stresses
Climate varies geographically
Scarce resources
Children in Africa and Asia are succumbing to malnutrition
80% of death toll due to climate change effects
No money to import food if not self-sustainable
Reliant on Agriculture
Economic losses as crop yield decreases
African countries rely heavily on agriculture
Precipitation less reliable, people suffer
Tropical and Sub-tropical areas
Suffer the most changes as temperatures increase
More droughts, and floods
Low lying areas more prone to flooding
Infrastructure
Poorly developed in most Asian and African countries
Vulnerable to greater loss of life and property
5. Evaluate how different effects of Climate Change can affect Sustainable Development
Climate change can affect economies and exacerbate concerns about food supplies, livelihoods and vulnerability natural hazards. Potential costs of damage are huge and are largely borne by the poor.
5.1 Ecosystems
Poleward and latitudinal shifts in plant and animal life can upset ecosystems
Warming can affect animals and cause changes that worsen biodiversity decline
More frequent extreme weather events can threaten to destroy habitat and accelerate soil erosion, damaging plants and animals
Damage to land can affect human livelihoods and future prospects
5.2 Threat to lives and livelihood
Low-lying areas are likely to be lost due to salt water intrusion and humans living there will be affected (agricultural, industrial and residential)
Death and disease increase among humans and animals
Damage to infrastructure hampers future development
5.3 Water Shortages
Seasonal precipitation may produce drier and warmers summers
Increased forest fires in Southern Europe and The USA
Lower summer rainfall leads to lower run-off and bad impacts on rivers and water available for human use
Less reliable and infrequent precipitation leads to more extreme droughts
Disruption to agriculture can undermine livelihoods
5.4 Death and Disease
Deaths by natural disasters to increase
Water shortages cause health and sanitation issues, thus increasing risk from water-borne diseases such as cholera
At mid-high latitudes, deaths are fueled by more frequent and higher intensity heat waves
5.5 Threat to human capital
Competition for funds will occur in society as funds are redirected to climate change measures. This thus reduces budget for other things such as healthcare, education and social development
5.6 Threat to economic activities
Industries that depend on climatic conditions will suffer from climate change
Reduction in river flow can be very damaging if shipping lines were disrupted or hydroelectric power diminished
