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Thinking Skills :unlock: Dr Marie Cahillane (Heuristics (Benson 2016)…
Thinking Skills :unlock:
Dr Marie Cahillane
JDP 4 Link - Understanding and Decision Making
Two modes of thinking
Kahneman, 2011
System 1
Unconscious Thinking
Effortless
Involuntary Control
Intuition
Emotion
Speed
Reflex
System 2
Conscious thought
Effortful
Concentration
Deliberate
Analytics
Reason
Associative Memory
fast at updating
pattern recognition
Creative Thinking -
Adaptive control of thought
Can cause changes / improvements in the brain
Preparation
Concentration
Incubation
Illumination
Verification
If concentration drops and you are distracted, change topic and this may stimulate other ideas (incubation)
Heuristics
(Benson 2016)
Hard wired
Automatic
situations cueing the use of heuristics
information overload
not enough meaning
need to act fast
reflecting on decisions
Anchoring -
Situating the estimate...
Framing -
Rewording a fact to direct opinion/thought about a topic
Availability -
Biases
Confirmation
Expectancy
Premature closure
Self-serving
Optimism
Overconfidence
Mirroring
Groupthink
De-biasing
Assumption checklists
Cognitive forcing strategies
Consider the opposite
Devil's advocate
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (Antithesis)
e.g. Rommel was a shit leader, why?
Become aware - Recognise - Monitor Development - Cost/Benefit of time
Seek other perspectives (
Six hats
)
Reverse thinking (flip the question, reverse it to become negative - people think differently in the negative)
Make the decision maker accountable (become more systematic)
Limitations of Debiasing
Not all biases are bad
i.e. more towards the intuition end of the spectrum
no single strategy is effective
over focus on de-biasing can create further biases
timely to detect and remove biases (+motivation to do so)
Evidence characteristics
OURRAT
Objective
Usable
Readiness
Relevance
Accuracy
Timeliness
Argumentation Formula
Aim - to establish the chosen option is better than any other
convincing story - Evidence
state disconfirmation information and inconsistencies
check assumptions
A Conceptual Thinking Framework
Creativity (Divergent/non-conscious)
Systematic Exploration (Divergent/conscious)
Rapid Intuitive Decision (Convergent/conscious)
Logical Deduction (Convergent/non-conscious)
Principles of Good Thinking
Embrace uncertainty
Trust Intuition as expertise grows
Be aware of emotions
Review biases