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SCIENTIFIC THEORY / SYSTEM'S APPROACH (KEPLAN SUGGESTED 10 MODELS:…
SCIENTIFIC THEORY / SYSTEM'S APPROACH
INTRODUCTION:
NATURE OF THEORY: BEHAVIOURAL OR SCIENTIFIC
PURPOSE:IT IS TO DEVELOP GRAND THEORY OF I.P AT PAR WITH NEWTON'S THEORY OF GRAVITATION
KEY COMPONENT: MORTON KEPLAN
HE WANTED A DEVELOP A THEORY WHICH CAN EXPLAIN PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE
WHAT IS ADAVANTAGE OF SYSTEM'S THEORY
INTERDISCIPLINARY SYSTEM
IT LOOK AT I.P AS A SYSTEM RATHER THAN PARTS
IT IS DEVOID OF ANY IDEOLOGICAL CONTENT OR NORMATIVE BAISNESS
KEPLAN SUGGESTED 10 MODELS:
1ST MODEL: BALANCE OF POWER
REGIONAL SETTING
4-5 POWERS LIKE IN EUROPE (18-20 CENTURY))
CONCERNED ABOUT TERRITORIAL SOVERIGNITY OR NATIONAL INTEREST
NO BODY IS ALLOWED TO GAIN PREPONDERED POWER
IF ANYONE DOES THAT OTHER STATE WILL COME TOGETHER TO PUNISH AND DEFEATED ACTOR IS BROUGHT INTO SYSTEM
NATIONS ARE READY FOR WAR
2ND MODEL BIPOLAR WORLD:
AFTER WW2 TWO MAJOR POLES AND STATUS OF OTHER STATES WAS LIKE SATELIITE
3RD MODEL: LOOSE BIPOLAR
IT MAY HAPPEN WHEN POWER OF ATTRACTION BECOMES WEAK.. OR THIRD ACTOR MAY COME UP LIKE NAM(WHICH WEAKEND POLARITY)
4TH: VERY LOOSE BIPOLAR:
NATIONS MAY GET OUT OF THE BLOC.. FOR EG: CHINA COMING OUT OF SOVIENT BLOC
5TH : DETENTE MODEL:
SHOW RELAXATION OF TENSIONS B/W TWO SUPERPOWER
6TH UNIVERSAL ACTOR MODEL:
HYPOTHETICAL MODEL: ALL COUNTRIES UNDER ONE WORLD GOVT.
7TH: HIERARCHICAL SYSTEM:
IT IS OPPOSITE OF UNIVERSAL ACTOR
ALL COUNTRIES COME UNDER ONE HEGEMONIC POWER: LIKE UNIPOLAR WORLD
8TH UNIT-VETO MODEL:
EACH STATE DEVELOP EQUAL CAPACITY TO DESTROY EACH OTHER.. OPP. TO HIERARCHICAL SYSTEM
9TH INCOMPLETE NUCLEAR DIFFUSION MODEL:
SITUATION WHERE 14 TO 15 COUNTRIES POSSES NUKES
10TH:UNSTABLE BLOC SYSTEM
VERY HIGH LEVEL OF SUSPICION B/W TWO SUPERPOWER: VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION
MARKS BEGINING OF NEW COLD WAR
CRITICAL EVALUTION:
ACC. TO STANLEY HOFFMAN:
IT IS HUGE MISTEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION(SCIENTIFIC DIRECTION)
SYSTEM IS FAR FROM REALITY. DOESN'T EVEN CAPTURE BASIC STUFF OF POLITICS
IT DOESN'T MEET BASIC DEMAND OF SYSTEM'S APPROACH:
IT DOESN'T DEFINE CHARACTERSTIC OF PRESENT SYSTEM, NOR ITS PROCESSES , NOR ITS BOUNDARY
ACC. TO LIEBER:
THERE IS GAP B/W THEORY AND PRACTICE
NOT DISSCUSED DOMESTIC VARIABLE, HISTORICAL AND IDEOLOGICAL FACTOR
GAME THEORY
SCIENTIFIC: USE CONCEPTS OF MATHS, ECONOMICS,
OPERATIONAL RESEARCH
PURPOSE: TO PREDICT ABOUT BEHAVIOUR OF STATE
BASED ON ASSUMPTION OF REALISM THAT STATE ARE RATIONAL ACTORS
GAME THEORY ASSUME I.P IS GAME:
GAME OF STARETEGY
: PLAYING TO WIN
GAME THEORY HAS TWO PROMIENENT MODELS
TWO PERSON GAME
N NUMBER GAME
BASED ON ZERO SUM GAME, NON- ZERO SUM GAME
POINT AT WHICH DECISION ARE MADE IS CALLED SADDLE POINT
THE TWO MOST FREQUENTLY USED MODEL ARE:
CHICKEN'S GAME
MODELLED ON CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS
SITUATION TWO PLAYERS IN A HEAD-ON COLLISION SITUATION
HOW PLAYERS WILL DECIDE
WHETHER GIVE PRIORTY TO PRESTIGE OR PROTECTION FROM CATASTROPHE
RATIONAL ACTORS WILL CHOOSE PROTECTION OVER PRESTIGE
THOUGH THERE IS A FEAR THAT ONE WHO BACKS TRACKS : WILL BE KNOWN AS CHICKEN'S HEART
FOR EG: INDIA- CHINA DOKLAM FACE OFF
PRISONER'S DILEMMA
SUGGEST THAT SITUATIONS IN I.P ARE NOT SUCH TO INSPIRE STATE TO COOPERATE
RATHER THEY ARE SUCH WHICH FORCE THEM TO DEFECT
PRISONER'S DILEMMA FITS WELL IN CONTEXT OF INDIA AND PAKISTAN ACCQUIRING NUKES
THOUGH THERE IS LARGER INTERST IN BOTH COUNTRIES THAT THEY DON'T ACCQUIRE THREAT
BUT DOUBT IS CREATED WHEN: INDIA TRUSTS PAK BUT IF PAK DEFECTS (USE NUKES) THAN IT WILL CAUSE UNACCEPTABLE DAMAGE TO INDIA AND VICE VERSA
SO BOTH WILL ACQUIRE NUKES
POST COLONIAL PRESCEIPTIVE MAIN STREAM THEORIES(LIBERAL, REALIS, MARXISM )ETC
THEY HELD THAT THESE THEORIES ARE
EUROCENTRIC THEORIES
EUROCENTRISM:
THEORY BASED ON HISTORY , NEEDS OF WESTERN WORLD
THEY HAVE NO RELEVANCE EITHER FOR UNDERSTANDING PROBLEMS OR SOLUTIONS OF POST COLONIAL STATE
FOR EG:
SATNLY HOFFMAN SAYS I.R AS AMERICAN SOCIAL SCIENCE
MORGENTHU: AFRICA IS POLTICALLY EMPTY
KENETH WALTZ:M IT WILL BE RIDICULAS IF BUILD THEORY OF I.P ON FORIEGN POLICY OF MALAYSIA OR COSTQA RICA
SO THERE IS A NEED TO DECLONISE THE DISCIPLINE
MAKE IT EGALITARIAN
IT IS WRONG TO MAKE A GENERAL LAW FOR ALL BASED ON EXPEERIENCE OF WESTERN COUNTRIES
CONCEPTS LIKE SOVERIGNITY, SECURITY DILEMMA WHEN APPLIED IN 3RD WORLD COUNTRIES BECOMES PROBLAMATIC
THERE IS WILFUL NEGLECT OF 3RD WORLD COUNTRIES . AS IT PROVIDE MEANS TO EXPLOIT 3RD COUNTRIES
I.P WHEN LOOKED FROM 3RD WORLD IS NOT ANRCHICAL BUT IT IS HIRARCHICAL DOMINATED BY WESTERN COUNTRIES