Black Swan: Cap 18 to Epilogue

Cap 18: uncertainty of the phony

ludic fallacy ramification

part 3

casino story

protorandomness

greater uncertainty principle

gaussian

true limits of knowledge

War

Dangerous Philosophers

pennies vs. dollars

PhD Philosopher + Finance

compartmentalized

Critical Thinking

Duty #

Business of questioning

blind belief ⚠

Stock Market

"Experts" Say so

Nationality

Practitioners

from Problems to Books

Daniel Dennett Joke

Karl Popper

succes outside philosophy

no-nonsense

blinded "confirmators"

Bishop vs. securities analyst

selective skepticism

Nobel infallibity

Decision under skepticism ❗

Induction & black swan

Antidote: noncommoditized

Cap 19: Half & Half

The End

Half: Hyperskeptic

Half: certain & stubborn

where others gullible

skeptical about confirmation

where errors costly

plenty of data does not confirm

single instance disconfirmation ‼

where randomness is MILD

HATE (Negative) black swans

LOVE (positive) black swans

positive accidents

free gifts

Apelles the painter

beware error avoidance ⚠

Hyperconservative

hyperagressive

where caution recommended

< failures < worries

"safe" blue chip stocks

invisible risks

speculative ventures ⚠

limit by small investments ✅

worry about things under control

< embarrasment

>missing oportunities

"In finance, for instance, people use flimsy theories to manage their risks and put wild ideas under "rational" scrutiny"

"I worry less about embarrassment than about missing an opportunity"

don't run for trains

chances of being alive

Epilogue:Yevgenia's white swans

2nd book

another Black Swan! ‼

Taleb = Yevgenia ⁉

not a bestseller