Black Swan: Cap 18 to Epilogue
Cap 18: uncertainty of the phony
ludic fallacy ramification
part 3
casino story
protorandomness
greater uncertainty principle
gaussian
true limits of knowledge
War
Dangerous Philosophers
pennies vs. dollars
PhD Philosopher + Finance
compartmentalized
Critical Thinking
Duty #
Business of questioning
blind belief ⚠
Stock Market
"Experts" Say so
Nationality
Practitioners
from Problems to Books
Daniel Dennett Joke
Karl Popper
succes outside philosophy
no-nonsense
blinded "confirmators"
Bishop vs. securities analyst
selective skepticism
Nobel infallibity
Decision under skepticism ❗
Induction & black swan
Antidote: noncommoditized
Cap 19: Half & Half
The End
Half: Hyperskeptic
Half: certain & stubborn
where others gullible
skeptical about confirmation
where errors costly
plenty of data does not confirm
single instance disconfirmation ‼
where randomness is MILD
HATE (Negative) black swans
LOVE (positive) black swans
positive accidents
free gifts
Apelles the painter
beware error avoidance ⚠
Hyperconservative
hyperagressive
where caution recommended
< failures < worries
"safe" blue chip stocks
invisible risks
speculative ventures ⚠
limit by small investments ✅
worry about things under control
< embarrasment
>missing oportunities
"In finance, for instance, people use flimsy theories to manage their risks and put wild ideas under "rational" scrutiny"
"I worry less about embarrassment than about missing an opportunity"
don't run for trains
chances of being alive
Epilogue:Yevgenia's white swans
2nd book
another Black Swan! ‼
Taleb = Yevgenia ⁉
not a bestseller