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181122 Apollo Thoughts on Future Warfare: Some American Perspectives: VTC…
181122 Apollo Thoughts on Future Warfare: Some American Perspectives: VTC Hoffman/Hammes
Sharpening America's Competitive Edge Across the Continuum of Conflict
Hoffman
different cultures have different perspectives
need to know what war is
no current agreement esp b/n Asia, RU, US
US behind in preparation and education for 21C
lumpers / splitters
lumpers: those who look are the whole
US doctine
irregular or traditional
splitters: look at elements
Clausewitz was
proposed continuum
gray
ambiguity on the nature of conflict
default mode for future conflict?
sense of persistant war
risk of escalation
design to be below the threshold of interstate warfare
measures short of war
US have not been doing cohesively but should be part of security agenda
eg SCS militarisation
corrosive, changes international order
irregular/terror
75% of wars are regular & short of conventional war
limited conventional
theatre conventional w WMD
in acsending order of violence
hybrid
but origninal intent was a definition of highly specialised (potentially not often seen) that drew in all elements
simultaneously
defn: a broad, complex & adaptive combination fo conventional & non-conventional means & over & covert mil, paramilitary & civilian measures are employed in a highly integrate design by state & non-state actors to acheive their objectives' NATO
some use this as grey-zone
NATO has sole military mission
but excludes terrorism & criminal acty
eg Ukraine
need to fight across the spectrum of conflict
to compete against all areas of statescraft
out partner, out inform
challenges
congnitive
broader range/number of competitors
what level of war
understand where prosperity of risk
organisational
not organised across WoG to make decisions fast enough
Hammes
(txhammes1@gmail.com
)
1st Rule of military history
leave mountain people alone
a caution
underlying nature of war will not change
tech will not remove passion
tech will not remove chance
types of enemy
nation states
high tech
more nuclear nations
prevents invasions
surrogates
non-state insurgencies
competition between human networks
will reflect their societies
driven by a strong narrative
transdimensional
three types
anti-colonial
gone
who rules
borders are wrong
current focus
communities as split by empire unifying
state formations = decades
nation formation = centuries
so understand what is happening
non-state actors (super empowered)
super empowered small grp/individual
off the shelf tech
technology
nano explosives
greater damage, greater penetration
and esp secondary damage
task specific AI (also called limited)
specific tasks that equipment is better than a human
robotics/drones
3D printing
cheap
and many
so cheap mass fire power
so swarm in numbers
with range
long range delivery with accuracy
vertical launch recovery
slocum glider
hydro survey
stay at sea for 5 yrs
or self deploying mine
cheap space
mass satellited
high pass
currenty 24 hrs but will reduce
so can not hide
surprise employment
containerised missiles
merchant ships, fishing vsl deployment
directed energy
advantage to land based defence due to power
weather limited
microwave - denied through farady
so operational implications
defense become stronger
denial is easier than use
so accessible to small states wishing to repel small ones
power projection is more difficult
everyone has long range precision
strategic implications
increases cost of intervention
long wars
Q&A
autonomous kill?
Western have been doing this for a long time (mines)
targeting sea mines, TLAM can self retarget, some AAM can retarget based on signature
so the argument is where the human is not relevant
so parameters to ensure that it does what we want it to.
about abilities
how do deal with swarm?
and what opponents can and might do
procurement
desire for 'shiny toys' out dated
will take many steps
eg hide missiles in containers
countries will follow US (or have their versions)
think of drones of disposable
think of ammunition rounds
submarines not a good option for AS
should investigate UUVs for defence