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181121 Apollo New Offset Strategy Lecture Babbage (traps (fail to assess…
181121 Apollo New Offset Strategy Lecture Babbage
Toward a New Offset Strat - some reflections on the report by Robert Martinage
what is an offset strategy
requires
advanced tech in innovative away
entrepreneurial & innovative
changed org structures / habits
the most difficult
strong united leadership
and persistant
frequence excerise & refinedment
published to
boost deterence
win confidence of domestic / audience
inc parliament
game changer & asymmetric
Martinage
deterrence by punishment & denial
through
ISR
strengths
ISR
but becoming contested
builds on US strengths
reduce dependence on vulnerable areas
weaknesses
vulnerable bases
IW / political warfare
assumes start of conflict is kinetic
assumes innovation edge
kinetic warfare focused
no soft power
affordable & achievable in the timeframe?
how to describe the current situation
not peace. not war
no set rules, no boundaries, no time frame
what is China doing
future war: unmanded, invisible, silent
traps
fail to assess rivals strengths and weaknesses
being captured by the preseent
belief it is all about technology
its about confronting key rival capabilities
it becomes a mish-mash of capability without a strategy
it doesn't promise to deter & defeat the rival across the contingency spectrum
too slow in arriving
it is unaffordable
Australia need an offset strategy?
yes
broader than Defence
competitive teams of allied mil, industry, think thank & academic personnel
without bureaucracy
syndicate discussion feedback
focus on mil as opposed to all aspects of statecraft
focus on traditional war as opposed to 'grey zone' / pre-phase 3
potential new emphasis on political warfare
political war
CH deep tools & experience
West
huge military
some aide
is DIME adequate?
no?
CH
values?
ability to continue to rise
energy
demographics
trade
Defence budgets
what does purchase power parity mean to gross GDP figures?
Australia
needs to be creative
own & allied secruity
able to have a disproportionate impact with allies
how to invest in high leverage capabilities