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181121 Apollo The Sinews of Force: Political Economy and the Future of…

- - - - US 'comply if interest'
        
        removes quid pro quo
      - Brexit
      - do not think globalisation is good
        
        because of issues with
        
        capitilisation
        
        issues with economy
        
        technology
        
        pressure to adapt to be part of society but many people can't
        
        migration
        
        labour issues
        
        people we met follow a different rule book
        
        so questions of identity
        
        globalisation
      - so people will try something different
    - - so now new unpredictable rule books of new leaders
        
        so
        
        cannot communicate
        
        cannot manage crisis
- - - - why the Cold War was won
  - - - to aspire people to war
  - - - families and acquired sense of moral values
  - - - internationally
        
        people begun moving money out of America to own systems
        
        and US biased to own interests (through own thinking)
        
        this supported US financial power
      - domestically
        
        so will not pay to project American power if the system is not so good
    - - so US benefits fm globalisation reducing
        
        therefore financially difficult to
        
        find own military
        
        provide aid to reduce conflict
        
        support allies
    - - consumes federal monies
        
        where does this money come from?
        
        not from taxes (probably)
        
        from somewhere else internationally this further reducing US power
    - - Asians trading with Asians
    - - and an erosion of moral authority
        
        nations will have a variety of role models (rather than just the US)
      - so Trump is acting to realign benefits to costs including cutting commitments
        
        therefore alternatives are emerging
        
        eg European Army
- - - - so IN will take the competitive edge
      - so CH & IN to cooperate to allow this transition to take place
        
        IN does not have the infrastructure
        
        CH has the money for infrastructures
        
        and it is in CH interests to do so
        
        but what about CH jobs
        
        so investment in technology
        
        high R&D (esp as %age of GDP)
        
        bio tech & AI
  - - - US has sided with Saudi Arabia (for higher prices) so no longer side with Europe / JA who desired lower prices
- - - - to (re)gain position
        
        eg RU
  - - - US/CH duopoly unlikely
        
        competing powers
      - US has not tried to mobilise economically
        
        they have abandoned the WTO
      - major powers will respect each other but proxy wars
  - - - peaceful coexistance between regions
      - little appetite for a new global system
    - - three regions
        
        East Asian region
        
        as opposed to an Asian region
      - Europe
      - Western
    - - CH needs a new demographic model
        
        ageing population
      - know whether CH R&D is effective
      - will know about CH / IN manufacturing transistion
      - know whether US alignment is successful
      - so an axis
        
        East Asia inc SEA /Africa / West
        
        Africa the only growing populations
- - - - including understanding of mindset,culture
    - - starts with demography
      - look at geography
        
        countries trade with neighbours (gravity theory)
        
        US
        
        oceans as a sheild
        
        AS means external attack difficult
  - - - and no-one will lend
      - Africa still some time as a manufacturing up (30 yrs)
  - - - and will address their problems (success?)
    - - CCP has strong control
      - smaller market incentives