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Workshop 5 - Graham-Allison : essence of decision (The organizational…
Workshop 5 - Graham-Allison : essence of decision
Model 1 : rational actors
Irrational : you don't know what happens next
Rational : balance each option : gain and loss --> maximize profits or minimize loss
Pb : you don't always know the vital informations
State --> intelligent actor (common pop w/ R. Aron) --> what happens in the international system is the result of the choice of each state
Three major parts of decision making process are studied
Formulation
Implementation
Agenda setting
The organizational Behavior model
Decision is taken through routine, programmed actions and sociological rules
Decision is not anymore due to a calcul
Stare is not seen as one thing : presence of many actors
National choices result to the sum of multiple individual choices --> but are those individuals able to make rational choices for the state ?
Importance of psychology :
ex : Bush son goes to Irak to surpass his father who had run a collation supported by the UN in Irak
Actors have different values, beliefs and personalities --> different interests --> not interchangeable
Misperception : Too many info --> need filters --> biais
Affective biais : emotions undermine cost-benefits calculations
Cognitive biais : limitations of the human brain in making choices : hardened image of the enemy (everything seen as negative)
Individuals don't have all the info --> can't create a complete model of analysis
Group psychology
Groups --> balance the blind sports / biais --> + rationality (role of advisors)
Group-think : groups reach decisions without calculating the + and - --> too optimistic / more willing to take risks / don't express their doubts / nobody feels accountable
It is important bus : experienced negotiators can benefit from group-think / important if we are in such a situation
Crisis management
Crisis : important outcome / little time --> groupthink occurs a lot : stress, lack of sleep --> overestimate the hostility of the other and underestimate theirs
1962 : Cuban Missile Crisis : JFK gathers a group of experts --> no solution --> leaves the room to allow everyone to express --> had two possibilities (bombing, nothing) but find a third (naval blockade)
Solution : let people talk freely / ask someone to be the devil's advocate