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181120 Apollo Applied Futures Thinking: Lecture Marcus Barber (Tools…
181120 Apollo Applied Futures Thinking: Lecture Marcus Barber
crowd sourcing the future
good at identifying what the future(s) would look like but really bad at getting timing right
futures con game
take a new concept
make a massive claim about utility
market it
so media savvy but wrong may have more influence
aim
multi-point potential
estimate to adapt
no silver bullets
about expanding options
but you still need to make the call
understanding bias
types
general
tools of time to plan
strategic
apply tools, determined the how, make relevant
eg scenarios
applied & pragmatic
help identify emerging issues before they become 'current problems'
like a court jester
gives you a change to push to test your assumptions
aim to provide an adaptive capability
equations
Fn= (Av+Ev)/(B)(De)(DIi
A = assumptions (validity)
E
D: Depth
B: Breadth
aim top to = bottom
bias
what info do we automatically accept/reject
confirming date exist?
surprise often for the uninformed (Blacks swan fallacy)
habits will define our future
theoretical
conceptual visions of what the future would look like
do not have the how
Read: Contours of Conflict in the 21C (Hague Centre for Strat Studies)
https://hcss.nl/report/contours_of_conflict_in_the_21st_century_1
Tools
test understanding think of now?
not through history
three levels
probable
preferable
possible
no such thing as a future trend
trends are historical
a single trend will deny operational flexibility
use a scanning framework
assess conformation bias
CDA
values
phases of human development
clan/tribe
feudal authorities
one way / rules must be obeyed
with us or against us
trading partnerships
rules as guidelines
casual layered analysis
who has a different opinion and how
what do we need to know to further develop our view
who wins, who losses & who is doing the same
scenarios
multiple types
estimative
plausible story
inductive
what would happen if?
move to a result and repeat question
deductive
normative
preferred futures as their end goal
look for common elements of address a number of scenarios designed to address the same issue
expend resources on these
other outcomes: monitor and apply when conditions emerge
develop go/no signals for strategic actions
identifying strategic options
rate them
back casting
antidote to forecasting
consider key event items
what made them move forward
allows you to hold resources
determine signals
then have analysts that look like these
then tie into a scenario
if a core event does not happen then your scenario does not happen
determines whether your scenario was plausible not if your scenario was right
but conditions based, not time based
Human agency
what we we like to shape the future to be
what would you
like
to avoid
we tend to forget significant change
how well have I questioned my own assumptions?
breadth, depth, distance, assumptions and expectations