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181119 Apollo Historian v Futurists (can't repeat history Ferguson…
181119 Apollo Historian v Futurists
can't repeat history Ferguson
especially with emotional beings
but
can interpret human experience
eg make comparisons between financial crises
can use alternative pasts to determine what did happen
ie you need to know what didn't happen
historians reenact the past through documents of people of that time
economic volatility + empire in decline + ethnic tensions (3Es) = probability of organised violence
but can learn from those before
five futures
globalisation is vulnerable leading to violence
learn from history to prevent the 3Es
on Shwartz
three futures (Shwartz)
demonstrates issues with being a futurists
but also historians
historians need to learn from the scientests
wrong about CH
need to deal with bias
eg Schwatz's view of teenagers
they don't matter
historians: great events should have great causes
how to deal with new ideas in history
Shwartz
perspectives: futurists see history on the up
failure is a failure of imagination
2nd half of 20C world was on the up
progress in institutions
so conflict post 50's was mostly civil wars
economics, environment
so things should progress
but
climate change (potential)
knowledge
more people have a stake in the future
learning reforms
being able to avoid conflict
better governance structures
technology is neutral
can be accelerated by warfare
to what extent does optimism v pessimism effect analyses
need to focus on the worst case scenario
but history will give it to you