Please enable JavaScript.
Coggle requires JavaScript to display documents.
181119 Apollo Framing the field of Futures Studies: Lecture Evans…
181119 Apollo Framing the field of Futures Studies: Lecture Evans
Film (HG Wells) Things to Come
lesson
easy to identify specifics but not the marcos
so be prepared to live with error
themes
assumptions & philosophy
philosophy of integral
uses complex adaptive systems: non-linear inter agency of actors
analytical basics
fads v trends
fads: short term
history matters
interdisciplinary
typology
problem orientated
consider
think in time
conditional probability: patterns of social order
space of experience
horizon of expectation: human factor
deep structures
predetermined elements
3PW
possible
probable
preferable
wild cards/black swans
requires knowledge and interdisciplinary expertise
a culture is needed
not a future but futures
length of vision effects judgements
defence and security relevant
thinking about the future
challenges
no evidence to study
future has not occurred
'any useful statement about the future should at first seem ridiculour'
the goal
outline a set of assumptions that can be tested
the logic
no singular futures
there are preferable futures which we can shape
anticipation over prediction
equality of ignorance when it comes to knowing the future
'art of combining data from diverse experiences'
barriers
paradoxical
group think over creativity
so need for heracy
cognitive frameworks
stream of time
relevance of history in preparing for the future
life life forwards, but understand it backwards
three key areas
composed of singular events
but a repetitive structure behind this
different velocities of change
future
present
past
time is multi-layered
history in four ways
what we learn
as a world view
as culture
as study
history to understand the future
linear
cyclical
cliodynamics: aim to deduce history laws from maths modelling
analogical reasoning
past experiences to understand the unfamiliar but similar
but requires understanding of situational variables
counterfactuals
thinking about alternatives in the past and their consequences for learning
explain context, complexity & contingency
use confirmed knowledge
futures over the futures: alternative scenarios
use conjectural knowledge
synchronic thinking
plural thinking
Foxes over hedghogs: know many things (fox) v knowing one big think (hedgehog)
scattered or diffused, moving on many levels
calibration v discrimination
integration of conflicting cognitions
more accurate in recalling mistakes
backcasting