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181119 Apollo Conceptual Challenges in preparing for Future War: Lecture…
181119 Apollo Conceptual Challenges in preparing for Future War: Lecture Evans
character of military futures
scenarios are popular as they postulate uncertainty
closed politics: choices are made by a handful of people
issues with foresight when compared to long gestation for capabilities
so
government
funding
enemies
including within the service
scientific knowledge / technology
and
face upwards to defence policy
downwards to UoF
sidewards (friends and foes)
challenges
people with their own futures
anticipating
we already have a body about war
risk management
not risk aversion
so needs to be outside the battle rhythm of the everyday
balance technological and human influences
key questions
trends and conditions
how will they intersect to change the character of war
balance most likely v most serious
mono-cultures over mosaics
focus on specific gaps between ends and means
so
potentially a blend
hedging: eggs in many baskets
few important eggs in one basket
common mistakes
lack of imagination (planning mindsets)
activity without insight
closed politics (often by rank)
fads mistaken for trends
plausible facliicies
institutional bias
misunderstanding an event & structure
betting on continuity
ADF challenges
no modern & convincing AS future defence narrative
all about capablility
four big questions
cyber and space
failing states
irregular-hybrid war
change of tech, demography: related to globalisation and its discontents
lens
traditionalists: conventional state based war
multi-domain battle
A2AD and counter
third offset strategy
deals with US loss of precision strike monopoly
radicals
redefined human domain of warfare
human as the system
characterised by identity
so warfare will be irregular
weaponisation of social media
intergrationalists
multiple forms of warfare
fourth industrial warfare
future warfare debates
cyber war or cyber security
urbanisation and war
megacities?
what is hybrid conflict
grey zone
hybrid: conventional warfare with unconventional acty (usually by non-state actors)
climate change in war
climate models to imprecise for defence planners
as opposed to HADR
will AI change the nature of war?
ethics?
war without warrior ethos
war without warriers
new catastrophism
post Cold War era
decline of freedom & the growth of armed conflict
Freedom House
number of war deaths increasing
NDSC
bipartisan US Grp
US will face a national security emergency
would struggle to win wars against CH /RU
broken American politics
DOD deficiencies for force dev and readiness
NIC 2017
three scenarios
Islands
Orbits
Communities
CH buys Fijian island for mil base (2019)
seek robust rather than optimal futures