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Probability (Concepts (Combinations (B and C is intersection, B or C is…
Probability
Concepts
Relative Risk
Risk is probability event occurs
RR is comparing the risk of 2 events
"How many times more likely"
Combinations
B and C is intersection
B or C is union
Not B is complement
n choose r
Mutually Exclusive
Events that can't occur together
P(BnC) = 0
P(BuC) = P(B) + P(C)
Independent
Occurrence of events are separate
P(BnC) = P(B)P(C) if independent
Conditional Probability
P(B|C) = Probability of B given C
P(B|C) = P(BnC)/P(C)
Rearrange to find P(BnC)
Tree Diagrams
Displays sequences of events and their probabilities
Add probabilities of outcomes to calculate probability of event
Tables
Discrete probability distributions
Gives all possible values of a discrete random variable
Two-way Tables
Rows and columns are each a category variable
Cell displays frequency (or proportion) for R+C combination
Permutations
Distributions
Discrete
Binomial
Conditions
Fixed number of trials
Constant probability for success in each trial
Each trial is independent of another
There are only 2 outcomes
B(n, p)
n = Number of trials
p = Probability
GFX shows tail proportion P(X<=x)
Central limit theorem for samples
Poisson
On average...
Conditions
Two occurrences of the event can't occur at same time or place
Occurrences are independent of each other
Events occur independently
Poi(λ)
λ = Rate of event
Inverse poisson
Given probability of some number of occurrences
Find λ
Continuous
Triangular
Normal
N(σ, µ)
µ = mean
σ = Standard deviation
Continuity Correction
Approximate binomial with normal
P(X=x) use 0.5-x<X<0.5+x
Inverse normal
Use probability to find x
