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Civil War (Dynamics of civil war (Duration (Shorter conflicts (Coups &…

- - - - People have grievances
      - Old way of thinking about wars
        
        Changing shift
      - Challenge the government to fix
    - - Need opportunity to launch on grievances
        
        Unemployed young men
      - Greed
    - - Government not able to control land
      - Geographically government not present
    - - Wealth correlates with all
      - Poor countries have more grievances
  - - - But when removing 5 biggest wars, it becomes random noise
        
        Really, less big civil wars
    - - State strength has no effect
      - Ethnoreligious diversity
        
        Homogeneous countries have larger conflicts
      - Foreign assistance
        
        Aid increases, intensity increases
        
        Intervention
        
        Support to rebels
        
        Increases capabilities
        
        Promotes conventional tactics
        
        Support to government
        
        Deters rebels
        
        Promote insurgency
        
        Both side support
        
        Larger effect on rebels
        
        Increase lethality
        
        Doubles conflict insurgency
    - - Bigger army kills more heads
      - Relative Strength determines strategy/tactics
        
        Guerrilla warfare
        
        Confrontation
        
        Weak strength
        
        Focus on surviving & gaining
        
        State dedicates more resources to strong rebels
  - - - Coups & Revolutions
      - Post-Soviet conflicts
      - Anti-colonial wars
    - - Sons of the soil
        
        Land conflicts of ethnic majority create settlers in minority lands
    - - Sustains war effort
  - - - State capacity
        
        Size of government bureaucracy indicates government victory
        
        Army does not
      - UN Intervention
        
        Decreases chance of decisive victory for both sides
        
        Increases chance of negotiated peace
        
        Bigger chance for new war
      - Ethnic Wars
        
        Rebels rarely win
        
        Except in Africa
- - - - Shorter & more intense
      - From low level insurgency to full on fighting
    - - But what about Syria
      - How
- - - - Ethnic groups
      - Secretarian/religious groups
      - Class groups
      - Nigerian Civil War
        
        Republic of Biafra
        
        Not getting same opportunities
  - - - A background condition
    - - Key factor
        
        Ability of finances
        
        Recruits for rebel militas
  - - - Emphasizes group dynamics
        
        Security dilemmas
        
        Commitment problems
        
        Secessions
    - - Emphasizes finances
        
        Greedy rebels & outsiders
        
        Grievances due to inequality
        
        Insurgency financing
        
        Etc.
    - - Emphasize weak states
        
        Inability to protect hinterlands
        
        Fund police in rural or mountains where rebels hide