Terrorism

A lack of civil liberties is associated with the origin of the attackers and the place the attack occurs 缺乏公民自由与攻击者的起源和发生的地方有关 #

Krueger and Malečková (2003)

Even if income levels do not play a significant role in the origins of terrorism, they might in the targets 即使收入水平在恐怖主义的起源上起不到重要作用，也可能成为目标

In the rational crime model, poverty and lack of education would limit an individual's legitimate earning potential 贫困和教育不足将限制个人的合法收入潜力

This lowers their opportunity cost of committing crime and makes it more likely they will become a criminal降低犯罪的机会成本，使其更有可能成为犯罪分子

argued that terrorism does not linked to poverty and lack of education
K&M认为与贫穷和缺乏教育无关

Lack of skilled jobs (West Bank and Gaza, 1987) 缺乏熟练的工作
Greater gains for better educated from terrorist activity 从恐怖主义活动中获得更好的受教育机会取得更大

In a sample of 129 members of Hezbollah’s military wing who died in action between 1982 and 1994: 在1982年至1994年期间死亡的真主党军事129人中，
Significantly more likely to have attended secondary school than the general population比普通人更有可能上中学

Education has a significant positive effect on probability of becoming a Hezbollah fighter controlling for poverty and age (at the 10% level)控制了贫困和年龄（在10％的水平），教育对成为一名真主党战士概率显著积极作用

Terrorists tend to be relatively well-educated and come from the middle classes 恐怖分子往往相对受过良好教育，来自中产阶级

Poverty has a significant negative effect on probability of becoming a Hezbollah fighter, controlling for education and age贫穷对成为一名真主党战士概率显著的负面影响，控制了教育和年龄

These effects mainly driven by fighters coming from Beirut and South Lebanon, but certainly not supportive of militants coming from poverty and low level of education这些影响主要来自贝鲁特和黎巴嫩南部的战斗人员，但肯定不支持来自贫困和低教育水平的武装分子

Nassra Hassan (2001) on Palestinian suicide bombers: “None of them were uneducated, desperately poor, simple minded or depressed. Many were middle class and, unless they were fugitives, held paying jobs. More than half of them were refugees from what is now Israel. Two were the sons of millionaires.”

Nassra Hassan（2001）关于巴勒斯坦自杀炸弹手：
“他们没有受过教育，贫穷，头脑简单或沮丧。许多是中产阶级，除非他们是逃犯，否则就是支付工资。其中一半以上是现在以色列的难民。两个是百万富翁的儿子。

individuals are not driven to terrorist activity by their own poverty or lack of education 它表明，个人不是因为自己的贫困或缺乏教育而被驱赶到恐怖活动

But perhaps the presence of poverty and lack of access to education fosters terrorism in a country none-the-less 但是，也许存在贫困和无法接受教育的情况会使一个国家的恐怖主义无所适从

K&M also fail to find support for this hypothesis
K＆M也没有找到对这个假设的支持

The poorest countries do spawn more terrorists, but not once you control for a measure of civil liberties 最贫穷的国家确实产生了更多的恐怖分子，但是一旦你控制了一定程度的公民自由

Countries with weaker civil liberties are the origin of a larger number of international terrorist events 公民自由较弱的国家是更多的国际恐怖主义事件的起源

Krueger & Laitin (2007) present evidence that countries with higher GDP per capita are more likely to be the target of terrorism 人均国内生产总值较高的国家更有可能成为恐怖主义的目标
西欧的袭击就比美国更高

A lack of civil liberties is associated with the origin of the attackers and the place the attack occurs 缺乏公民自由与攻击者的起源和发生的地方有关 #

The origin and place the attack occurs tend to have very similar characteristics because terrorists tend to attack close to home (e.g. attacking a US target in the Middle East, rather than in the US)袭击发生的原因和地点往往具有非常相似的特征，因为恐怖分子往往会靠近家中袭击（例如攻击在中东的美国目标而不是美国的美国目标）

Negotiating with terrorists

The optimal policy is therefore likely to be never to negotiateonce this reputation is established, there is no reason for terrorists to ever take hostages again 因此，最佳政策可能永远不会谈判 - 一旦声誉成立，恐怖分子再也不会再被人质

If we were to negotiate with terrorists, the success of their hostage taking would lead them to do so again in the future如果我们要和恐怖分子谈判，他们的人质取得成功将导致他们今后再次这样做

We would end up with frequent hostage events, and either repeatedly paying ransoms (increasing the resources of terrorist groups) 我们最终会遇到人质事件的频发，并多次赎金（增加恐怖组织的资源）

This can be true even if the optimal action in a one-shot game

Problems: Even if this policy is publicly announced, it is likely that it will take time (and a series of hostage events) to be taken as credible: once hostages have been taken, very difficult to follow through on 即使这个政策是公开宣布的，很可能需要时间（和一系列的人质事件）被认为是可信的：一旦人质被采取，很难按照

Politicians are naturally myopic

Cost-Benefit analysis: estimating the costs of terrorism估计恐怖主义的费用

Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003)

Eckstein and Tsiddon (2004)

Besley and Mueller (2012)

Looking at the effect of ETA violence in the Basque region of Spain查看西班牙巴斯克地区ETA暴力的影响

Build a synthetic Basque region based on economic growth determinants prior to outbreak of ETA violence: 85% Catalonia and 15% Madrid 根据ETA暴力爆发前的经济增长决定因素建立巴斯克地区合成区域：加泰罗尼亚85％和马德里15％

Using a Variance to estimate the effect of terrorism on GDP, consumption, investment and exports 用variance估计恐怖主义对GDP，消费，投资和出口的影响

This involved getting quarterly data on Israeli GDP, non-durable consumption, investment and exports (the vector) and estimating how each of them depends on their own lags and lags of the other variables (the autoregression) 这涉及到获取关于以色列GDP，非耐用消费，投资和出口（向量）的季度数据，并估计每个数据如何依赖于其他变量的自身滞后和滞后（自回归）

Hypothesis: increases in the terror index last quarter should have a negative impact on GDP (and other variables) 假设：上个季度恐怖指数的上涨应对GDP（和其他变量）产生负面影响，

GDP per capita in 2003:3 was about 10-15% below where it would have been had there been no violence in the previous three year period 2003年第三季度GDP比前三年没有暴力的情况低约10-15％

If terror continued at the 2002:4 – 2003:3 level for another two years thereafter, GDP per capita was predicted to fall by 4% 如果在2002年第四季度4 - 2003年第三季度恐怖活动继续，则此后两年内的人均GDP预计将下降4％

This compared to a 3% increase in GDP per capita if terrorism ceased in 2003:4 如果2003年第四季度恐怖主义停止，则人均国内生产总值增长3％;

Comparison of a terrorised region with a synthetic control region 将恐怖区域与合成控制区域进行比较

Once the gap emerges, real GDP is about 10% lower in the actual Basque country than the synthetic one (without terrorism) 一旦出现差距，实际的国内生产总值在实际的巴斯克地区比合成的国家低10％（没有恐怖主义）

Using house price variation to establish the value of peace
使用房价变动来确定和平的价值

During the troubles in Northern Ireland, there was variation in levels of violence across time and space 在北爱尔兰的麻烦中，暴力程度根据时间和空间不同有所不同

There is also variation in house prices, so we can estimate the effect of violence on house prices
房价也有变化，所以我们可以估计暴力（或和平）对房价的影响

Overall, predicted that peace led to an increase in house prices of 1.3 to 3.5% 总的来说，预计和平导致房价上涨1.3至3.5％

Heterogeneous across regions跨区域异质性

In Belfast (most violent) the gains were between 5.9 and 16.6%
在贝尔法斯特（最暴力），涨幅介于5.9和16.6％之间，

Conclusion: Economic factors may play a role in the choice of target for terrorist attacks but not the origin of attacks or, at an individual level, the decision to become a terrorist 经济因素可能在选择恐怖主义袭击的目标方面发挥作用，但不得以袭击的起源，或在个人层面上决定成为恐怖主义

Conclusion: Civil liberties play key role in origin of attacks 公民自由在袭击的起源中起关键作用

Conclusion: Economics can tell us something about the strategic interaction between authorities and terrorists, and help us estimate the cost of terrorism经济学可以告诉我们有关当局和恐怖分子之间的战略互动，并帮助我们估计恐怖主义的代价