Please enable JavaScript.

Coggle requires JavaScript to display documents.

Terrorism (Cost-Benefit analysis: estimating the costs of…

- - - - Build a synthetic Basque region based on economic growth determinants prior to outbreak of ETA violence: 85% Catalonia and 15% Madrid 根据ETA暴力爆发前的经济增长决定因素建立巴斯克地区合成区域：加泰罗尼亚85％和马德里15％
        
        Comparison of a terrorised region with a synthetic control region 将恐怖区域与合成控制区域进行比较
        
        Once the gap emerges, real GDP is about 10% lower in the actual Basque country than the synthetic one (without terrorism) 一旦出现差距，实际的国内生产总值在实际的巴斯克地区比合成的国家低10％（没有恐怖主义）
  - - - This involved getting quarterly data on Israeli GDP, non-durable consumption, investment and exports (the vector) and estimating how each of them depends on their own lags and lags of the other variables (the autoregression) 这涉及到获取关于以色列GDP，非耐用消费，投资和出口（向量）的季度数据，并估计每个数据如何依赖于其他变量的自身滞后和滞后（自回归）
        
        Hypothesis: increases in the terror index last quarter should have a negative impact on GDP (and other variables) 假设：上个季度恐怖指数的上涨应对GDP（和其他变量）产生负面影响，
        
        GDP per capita in 2003:3 was about 10-15% below where it would have been had there been no violence in the previous three year period 2003年第三季度GDP比前三年没有暴力的情况低约10-15％
        
        If terror continued at the 2002:4 – 2003:3 level for another two years thereafter, GDP per capita was predicted to fall by 4% 如果在2002年第四季度4 - 2003年第三季度恐怖活动继续，则此后两年内的人均GDP预计将下降4％
        
        This compared to a 3% increase in GDP per capita if terrorism ceased in 2003:4 如果2003年第四季度恐怖主义停止，则人均国内生产总值增长3％;
  - - - During the troubles in Northern Ireland, there was variation in levels of violence across time and space 在北爱尔兰的麻烦中，暴力程度根据时间和空间不同有所不同
        
        There is also variation in house prices, so we can estimate the effect of violence on house prices
        房价也有变化，所以我们可以估计暴力（或和平）对房价的影响
        
        Overall, predicted that peace led to an increase in house prices of 1.3 to 3.5% 总的来说，预计和平导致房价上涨1.3至3.5％
        
        Heterogeneous across regions跨区域异质性
        
        In Belfast (most violent) the gains were between 5.9 and 16.6%
        在贝尔法斯特（最暴力），涨幅介于5.9和16.6％之间，
- - - - Nassra Hassan（2001）关于巴勒斯坦自杀炸弹手：
        “他们没有受过教育，贫穷，头脑简单或沮丧。许多是中产阶级，除非他们是逃犯，否则就是支付工资。其中一半以上是现在以色列的难民。两个是百万富翁的儿子。
  - - - Poverty has a significant negative effect on probability of becoming a Hezbollah fighter, controlling for education and age贫穷对成为一名真主党战士概率显著的负面影响，控制了教育和年龄
        
        These effects mainly driven by fighters coming from Beirut and South Lebanon, but certainly not supportive of militants coming from poverty and low level of education这些影响主要来自贝鲁特和黎巴嫩南部的战斗人员，但肯定不支持来自贫困和低教育水平的武装分子
- - - - We would end up with frequent hostage events, and either repeatedly paying ransoms (increasing the resources of terrorist groups) 我们最终会遇到人质事件的频发，并多次赎金（增加恐怖组织的资源）
        
        This can be true even if the optimal action in a one-shot game
- - - - The origin and place the attack occurs tend to have very similar characteristics because terrorists tend to attack close to home (e.g. attacking a US target in the Middle East, rather than in the US)袭击发生的原因和地点往往具有非常相似的特征，因为恐怖分子往往会靠近家中袭击（例如攻击在中东的美国目标而不是美国的美国目标）
- - - - Countries with weaker civil liberties are the origin of a larger number of international terrorist events 公民自由较弱的国家是更多的国际恐怖主义事件的起源