Using Mental Models to Make Decisions (general thinking concepts (Second…
Using Mental Models to Make Decisions
Human Nature & Judgement
general thinking concepts
‘Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by neglect.’
Second Order Thinking
What is the range of possible outcomes?
What’s the probability I’m right?
What’s the follow-on?
How could I be wrong?
Second-level thinkers push harder and don't accept the first conclusion.
Be different. It is okay to be wrong. I won't learn without being wrong sometimes. Just keep going. and don't conform.
Principle of Parsimony
the simplest solution is correct
extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence
Einstein: “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.
the map is not the territory
a similar thought in meditation and philosophy. don't think about it too much, conceptualization cannot replace the real thing.
Circle of competence
operate inside it to find success
slowly grow it throughout life
set up a mental experiment to help work through a problem
we prefer to be right, so we often only look for examples that prove us right. it only takes one example to prove us wrong. look for that
“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine.”
Address problems backward
instead of how can I be happier, think how can i avoid misery?
Microeconomics and Strategy
Military and War