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Three Alternative Futures (Business as usual (Water changes by 2025 (Water…
Three Alternative Futures
Business as usual
Water changes by 2025
Water scarcity will reduce food production
Consumption of water will rise by >50%
Household water use increase by 70%
Industrial water demand will increase for developing countries
Wider impacts
Developing countries more reliant on food imports and experience hunger, malnutrition
In China, India, Egypt, parts of W USA - water pumped faster than aquifers can recharge
Water Crisis
Water changes by 2025
Global water consump increase - mostly for irrigation
Domestic water demand will fall
Industrial water demand increase by 33% over business as usual levels
Wider impacts
Food production decline and food prices increase rapidly
Developing countries - malnutrition, food insecurity will increase
Dam building will decline and key aquifers in China, India will fail
Conflict over water will increase
Sustainable Water
Water changes by 2025
Global water consump and industrial water use will fall considerably
Environmental flows increased compared to other scenarios
Rain-fed crop yields could increase due to improvements in water harvesting and use of sustainable farming techniques
Agricultural and household water prices might double in developed countries, triple in developing
Wider impacts
Food production could increase slightly so prices fall slowly
Investment in crop research, technology and water-management reforms will increase
Unsustainable groundwater use put to end
Govs delegate farm management to community groups
Climate Change
Increases in global temps - earlier snowmelt in mt areas so increase in spring discharge in major river basins - this water lost to oceans or evaporated as present water management cannot store or use it effectively
Eg. Snowfields in Andes disappearing as rainfall replaces snowfall - loss of primary source of water - melting of Himalayan glaciers could threaten water supplies of nearly 1/2 pop of Asia
Cyclones, monsoon events could threaten supply - shortages of water due tp increased freq and intensity of drought - dried up rivers, irrigation failure, depleted aquifers threaten lives in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa