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Coking Coal SnD (Supply (Cost curve: Projects, M&A, incentive prices,…
Coking Coal SnD
Supply
Key producers' production:
Australia, China, Canada, US, Mongolia, Russia etc.
Cost curve:
Projects, M&A, incentive prices
Saleable production volume
Maintenance costs
Capital expenditure
Business costs
Transportation costs
Interest rate/Exchange rate
China coking coal production
production rate, production seasonality
Operating rate
:
supply response, re-start
Inventory
Ports
Coke plants
Steel mills
Demand
Key consumers' consumption
:
JKT, China, India, EU, etc.
Domestic consumption
Imports
Stocks
Downstream
Coke
Steel
Downstream:
Machinary
Infrastructure
Property Market
Freight
QHD-GZ, Australia to North China
Arbitrage
: spreads, margins
Coke-coking coal, HCC-PCI etc
Domestic coal vs imported coal
Expectation/Sentiment:
SGX, DCE swaps
Products
Premium Low vol
Semi-soft
Pulverized coal injection(to blast furnace)
Risk factors
Policy Risk
China Capacity cut
Tax reform
Tariff
Logistics
railway congestion
strikes
rains, cyclone
truck/railway
Source: TSI, Platts, CRU, AME, SXCoal, Mysteel, SGX, Bloomberg, WM