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Thermal Coal SnD (Demand Factor (Substitution Effect (Natgas price: EU/US…
Thermal Coal SnD
Demand Factor
Key imports:
JKT, India, China, EU
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Arbitrage opportunity:
NewC vs RB to India, 6000 kcal vs 5500 kcal
Domestic vs Import vs Export price
Sentiment/Expectation:
Forward curve: ZCE, ICE
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SoE restructuring
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Deleveraging:
marketization, debt-to-equity, equity financing
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Supply Factor
Cost curve (incentive price, marginal cost etc)
Potential Project (Long Term)
Greenfield, brownfield, probable
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Key exporter production level:
Australia, Indonesia, Colombia, South Africa, Russia
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